The art of the mineral and infrastructure steal

Trump has no interest in the consequences of his actions, he just wants to win at any cost

I apologise in advance for the length of this article, but I wanted to provide a really comprehensive roadmap through both the conflict and the unbelievable cruelty of a man who now has his finger on the nuclear trigger. Ukraine fits into a fast moving geopolitical puzzle that I hope this essay will piece together, assuming you have the stamina to stay the course? I could have broken it into smaller more digestible pieces, but I think it would detract from the big picture which exposes the true intent of Trump and those pulling his strings.

Many commentators say Trump is unpredictable. In the literal sense of the word it’s true, you never know what he’s going to do next. What you can be sure of however, is regardless of what he does, it’s to benefit HIM. If America benefits too that’s just a PR bonus and not the primary objective. The fact that now, anyone can pay $5 million to have a sit down with him at Mar a Largo, tells you all you need to know. I think it is safe to say, he’s the head of a state sponsored crime family, prepared to sell the American family silver to the highest bidder.

The President of the United States is now a man brandishing the absolute immunity granted to him by the highest court in the land. He travels to his own property almost every weekend, to hold meetings to asset strip America with little to no oversight. The estimated cost to the taxpayer for each trip? Around $3 million. It’s unclear what the arrangements are this time around, but in his first term he was charging back 3 times the room value to government to accommodate essential staff and Secret Service. Aside from taxpayers paying for these self enrichment trips, their dollars are also being fed to his businesses every time he visits one of his properties. If this is a president laser focused on removing waste and fraud from government, I think ‘we the people’ should be asking some serious questions. Trump is spending around $3 million every week, to hold court at his summer palace in order to enrich himself from guests paying $5 million a pop for him to lend them his ear.

I use the above, as a substitute for an opening statement to make a case in the court of public opinion, to demonstrate the character of the defendant. After all, Trump is already a convicted felon before I even present my case to the people.

In this, the final part of my commentary on the abandonment of Ukraine, we examine his criminal conspiracy to extort a US ally, and carve up the country of the victim of his co-conspirator, and indicted war criminal Vladimir Putin. At the heart of this case is the transactional nature of a man who is the new self declared King of America. It is no exaggeration to suggest his actions are real life imitating art. He’s a fat man wannabe gangster from a modern day Godfather movie, where guns don’t fire blanks and people actually die. He’s Don Snorelioni, head of a transnational state sponsored crime syndicate. He has the most powerful government on earth on his payroll for free. All while running a separate protection racket draining the pockets of hard working Americans. This is the man promising his base fantasy DOGE dividends to sell out their neighbours and friends. What a guy. The antithesis of a modern day Robin Hood, where the sheriff gets richer while the merry men are sold into economic slavery.

Having established who he is, let’s discuss the betrayal of Ukraine and the complex geopolitical implications of his blackmail and extortion attempt. First of all, let’s focus on the reality of what Trump has done to assist Ukraine from the outset of Putin’s illegal invasion. He has done nothing but stand in the way of Ukraine receiving military aid from the US. When Zelenskyy addressed a joint session of Congress on 21 December 2022, he received a record standing ovation from BOTH sides of the aisle, with just a small handful of the MAGA faithful dissenting. Congress offered unwavering support for, and I quote, “As long as it takes”.

What nobody accounted for in that moment, was Trump’s appetite for revenge on a Ukrainian president whose actions had led to him being impeached in his first term. What was to follow was not about protecting American interests or saving lives. It was about revenge at any cost and that included allowing thousands of innocent Ukrainians to be murdered if need be. In 2022 Trump embarked on his re-election campaign, having been forced to run early for fear of being sent to jail. One of the central planks of his agenda was no more aid to Ukraine. As he was now holding the Republican Party hostage, one by one, lawmakers abandoned Ukraine for fear of being primaried. History will record it as the year in which dignity, integrity and moral decency left Republican politics. By December 2023, Republicans had put all Ukraine military aid on hold. There is absolutely no question, in the months that followed, this led to the deaths of Ukraine soldiers and civilians. MAGA were actively circulating Russian talking points to their base and slowly public support for the Ukraine war started to erode. On the right, it all but disappeared. This was step one of Trump’s revenge on Zelenskyy.

Let’s be very clear, the Ukrainian position has never changed throughout the entirety of the war. Zelenskyy has NEVER asked for American boots on the ground. All he has ever asked for from allies, is the tools to defend his country and push back the Russian aggressor. His military has sacrificed tens of thousands of men. In addition, the UN estimates that 12,340 civilians had been killed by the end of 2024. However, this is probably a gross underestimate, given it’s very difficult to get accurate numbers, and even more difficult to get figures from Russian occupied territory.

Regardless of the losses, the cost to Ukraine has been devastating. The wounded and injured account for hundreds of thousands more lives changed forever. This has been a war which when over, will likely match the level of losses suffered by major western allies in World War 2. It’s a war of attrition, of up close and personal brutality for little territorial gain reminiscent of World War 1. The Ukrainian Army has literally halted the march of the alleged mighty Russian bear, who expected to be in Kyiv within weeks. Putin has been forced to throw thousands of North Korean soldiers into the wood chipper and rely heavily on Iranian supplied drones to gain just 2% of territory since 2023.

Once in office, Trump saw Ukraine as not so much a problem to solve, but rather an opportunity. It’s no secret that the US is way behind the curve when it comes to minerals and rare earth elements. While the US has been asleep at the wheel, aside from heavily investing domestically in mining and processing these resources, China has spent decades building infrastructure in Africa and South Africa through the Belt and Road Initiative. This has enabled them to secure critical supply chains to these vital resources. Through the same initiative, they’ve invested in South America, Asia and Australia. China is a big picture strategic thinker who has been playing the long game. It’s not for nothing, they have a global trade surplus of almost $1 trillion and own almost a trillion dollars of US treasury notes.

Trump recognises that the US is way behind on access to these critical minerals. 72% of rare earth imports into the US came from China, who handle 90% of GLOBAL rare earth mineral processing. This creates vulnerabilities for US industries, because domestic extraction and processing remains expensive and challenging. This problem was brought further into focus on December 3rd 2024, when China halted the export of gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard materials to the US. These are integral to the production of semiconductors, electronics, weaponry, solar technologies, electric vehicles etc. For clarity, they also imposed stricter rules on the export of graphite, hence Trump’s interest in Canada.

If we take a step back for a moment, and look at the ranking of countries for rare earth minerals, The list goes:

1. China

2. India

3. Brazil

4. Russia

Ukraine is not in the top 10 although it does indeed have substantial natural resources which do include rare earth minerals. As an aside, Greenland is number 8 on the list, so I think we can safely assume, Trump wanting to buy Greenland purely for national security reasons is yet another Trump lie. So how does this tie into Trump wanting do do a deal with Ukraine on minerals? I would argue that this is misdirection. If Trump is seeking rare earth minerals, it makes far more sense for him to do a deal to obtain them from Russia at a discount. He clearly could do this if he helps Putin seize Ukraine. This is where for me, the pieces of the puzzle fall into place. While he does not want to turn his nose up at Ukrainian mineral rights, that’s not the primary objective. Trump believes he has far more to gain from aligning with Russia and I believe he’s shortsightedly prepared to throw NATO and the EU under the bus to achieve his aims. This action then causes huge disruption to global trade, hurting those who dare enter a trade war with him. This whole play is one for for access to critical resources, it’s why he wants to annex Canada and Greenland too, as well as control shipping through the Panama Canal.

He’s looking to destabilize the whole global economy on the basis that America will be the last man standing, but we’ll deal with that in a separate post.

Shifting back to Ukraine, the move that gives his game away, is his point blank refusal to provide security guarantees to Ukraine. He has no objective other than to profit from what he sees merely as a distressed asset. Trump believes he can keep Putin on a leash if he helps him achieve his objectives. This is a huge miscalculation driven by hubris. Right now, he’s the only one that can’t see he’s being played. Be in no doubt, Marco Rubio knows it, but he’s not going to sacrifice himself for the good of his country.

Let’s take a closer look at the new deal on the table for Zelenskyy. Far from being fair, it presents a very stark choice. Life as a US economic colony, or Russian occupation. These are the only two choices on the table and the deal looks like this:

Ukraine signs up to effectively pay reparations to the US for military aid supplied to date plus 4% interest. The US under Delaware law controls the majority of Ukraine’s industrial output along with it’s transport and communications system. The mineral deal itself takes the form of a contract under which US and Ukraine split royalties from gas, oil and all minerals. Profits would be paid in US dollars and put into a joint investment fund which would be run by Americans holding three of five seats on the governing board. The US further demands that the US contribution to Ukraine’s war effort be paid back immediately. Trump claims, this is $350bn, but the true figure is closer to $130bn.

As reported by the UK Independent Newspaper, ‘The US deal covers all infrastructure used for the exploitation of mineral products – trains, roads, airports, ports, pipelines, processing plants and refineries and gives America veto power over the sale of resources to other nations or entities.’

Putting aside Zelenskyy would have to be insane to put a pen anywhere near such an agreement. The deal would NEVER be ratified by the Ukrainian Parliament. For me, the intention is clear. Trump is presenting a deal knowing Zelenskyy could not possibly agree to it. When he refuses, the US cease all military support and the supply of critical intelligence. this leaves Ukraine to meet the Russian threat blind.

In return for Putin being presented with this huge military advantage, he then does a deal with Trump for Russian minerals and energy resources, in return for the lifting of all US sanctions. Then when Ukraine is taken, they split the spoils between them. There can be no other reason for Trump taking the position that he is. The only risk Putin runs is if he upsets Trump as he appears to have done, over the suggestion that the UN place Ukraine under administrative rule while elections take place. Trump is clearly angry with this suggestion, as I think he feels this would make it appear he is over egging the cake.

Placing this development aside for a moment. Strategically, Trump believes Europe can not step in the fill the gap and if they attempt to, Trump then walks away from NATO. I’m afraid I can come to no other conclusion. The tariff war is just to destabilise Europe, Canada and the other members of the coalition of the willing. Never have I wanted to be more wrong, but I really can’t arrive at any other logical conclusion based on the facts available. Zelenskyy now finds himself in an impossible position. Any move to give up that level of economic control to the US, would prohibit membership of the EU which Ukraine is desperately seeking. The move destroys NATO and leaves it scrambling to fill the huge hole left behind by the US exit. I fully realise I am describing an ‘end of days’ scenario here, but that is where my mind leads me in this moment.

Europe has 2 choices if my scenario plays out.

1. Empty all European arms stocks into Ukraine and let them unleash hell on Russian positions while closing the skies over Ukraine.

2. Deploy the full remaining might of NATO in Ukraine against the Russians and drive them back to their pre 2014 borders, on the understanding that NATO will not cross the Russian border. It might just be time to call Putin’s bluff and prove to America that this can be handled by Europe.

This for me is a, do or die moment, because if Russia is allowed with indirect American help to take Ukraine, rest assured it WILL NOT stop there.

I have tried in this lengthy essay, to pull all the geopolitical threads together, into a coherent assessment that takes account of the facts on the ground and take account of the constant ramblings of Trump’s geopolitical ineptitude. However, I still feel I may be missing something. I just have no idea what. Later in the week, I propose to do a view of the situation from purely a European perspective, but I need to pull together further research before I can feel confident enough to make a valid assessment.

If you managed to stay with me this far, give yourself a pat on the back, well done and thank you for taking time to read my thesis.

Martin McSweeney