Now the derailed train in tumbling down the embankment, what next?

This week will be a real test of nerve for all concerned. If I'm right, It will likely indicate Trump has overplayed his hand if not, the world will roll over and comply. Somehow I don't see it.

Hello friends, welcome to another week of chaos. I am slowly getting into a routine so I can both write and interact with those spending their valuable time engaging with my musings. I’m grateful to everyone who has joined me on this shared journey and I’m looking forward to spending a five minute read with you each day as we move forward.

Back to the matter in hand, the global markets as I started to write this, were in free fall before the US markets opened for the day. As of writing, futures tied to the S&P 500 (ES=F) crashed another 4.9%, while those on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) sold off 5.3%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) sank 4.3%, or around 1,600 points. Meanwhile, oil prices dropped around 4%, tumbling below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021.

Regardless of where you look across the world today, there are dramatic losses which many thought would result in Trump backing off in some measure. Instead, he appears to be doubling down and this only serves to convince me there is much more at play here than appears on the surface. For starters, I think he’s playing chicken with the fed trying to force lower interest rates. The losses for ordinary Americans are now piling up and are significant, especially for those approaching imminent retirement. What is just a game to Trump and his international criminal extortion gang, is proving devastating even to those who voted for him. Nobody knows how he will react and this post may well become less relevant as the day progresses in terms of the losses reported. It will not however change the central tenet of the problem which is a correction being slowly hard wired into the markets.

Oil prices have now dropped below $60 a barrel, which on the upside, is more good news for Ukraine as this puts more pressure on the Russian economy, but there is no good news for anyone else so far today.

The critical consideration is the global reaction. Trump’s response over the weekend was:

“forget markets for a second…..we have all the advantages.”

“I don’t want anything to go down, but sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something,”

EU ministers met this morning in Luxembourg to consider the EU’s response. They have offered a zero for zero tariff to avert a trade war, but as yet, there was no response before this post was published. The the key player in this economic war on the world remains China. Let me begin by addressing the human rights violations they are guilty of, because those wanting to take issue with my position and observations, will no doubt attempt to deflect from the relevance of addressing the part China will play in this game of 3D economic chess. I do not condone any breach of human rights by ANY country including the US. China has many questions to answer. Here is the latest Amnesty International report and this is before we talk about Tibet.

‘The human rights situation in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region remained grave and there was no accountability for grave human rights violations committed against Uyghurs, Kazakhs and other predominantly Muslim ethnic minorities in the region.’

I could continue on about animal welfare and the practice of eating cats and dogs too, but it would be a distraction from the matter in hand. I want to make it very clear, I am not an advocate or an apologist for the Chinese government. I think it important to view western criticism of China through the lens of the world having been quite happy to exploit cheap Chinese labor for decades, while paying little if any attention to human rights abuses. The toleration of these abuses has simply been viewed as the price of doing business with China.

The Chinese Dilemma

The west has long been guilty of totally underestimating China. When the US decided to throw its own manufacturing workforce under the bus and ship jobs to China, they never gave it a second thought.

China has an ancient history of trade across the world via The Silk Road, so it’s no stranger to global trade. In 1784, America then an infant nation, sent a trading ship to China, one of the world’s oldest civilizations. This marked the first relationship with the Chinese. Immigrants began to arrive in numbers in the 1850’s seeking what we would now term ‘The American Dream’. As a result of an obsessive search for slave labor by rich American industrialists, they worked in numerous sectors including gold mines, agriculture and later construction. This is what Trump today sees as the golden era of zero regulation, maximum labor exploitation for big profit.

Chinese labor was absolutely instrumental in building the western section of the transcontinental railroad between 1865 and 1869. As you would expect, working condition were appalling and wages were best described as sweatshop poor. When the railroad was completed, they shifted to garment manufacturing, farming and domestic service. I’m sure all images and references to their contribution to the wealth of America, have already been erased from all museums and government archives by Trump and his history police.

Just as the undocumented immigrant population of today are facing mass deportation at significant cost to the economy, the Chinese who had made a huge contribution to development and increasing prosperity of America, faced exactly the same discrimination and hatred which led to the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882. By then, they were seen to have served their purpose and their services were deemed as no longer required. The point I am trying to make here, is that NOTHING has changed. This exploitative nature is part of the US DNA. The act remained in force as did the intimidation and discrimination, with the act being fully repealed in 1965. Unfortunately, the discrimination has never been repealed.

Fast forward to the end of the Korean War, the US barred trade and travel to and from China for almost two further decades. In the late 1970’s the Chinese government enacted economic reforms. Under Nixon, the US led the way to re-engage with China after recognising the economic benefit of being able to tap into a vast Chinese cheap labor pool. This coincided with the development of container shipping. The first overseas container was received in Tianjin Port in September 1973, marking the beginning of containerized shipping in China. This was a landmark moment from which China has never looked back.

I would add that since 1965, despite unrelenting discrimination, Chinese immigrants have contributed significantly to the US economy and culture. Many from Chinese immigrant families work in management roles as well as in science and the arts. They are what truly helps to make America great. America did not become the alleged largest economy on earth as a result of the hard graft of white christian men. It achieved it from rich white christian men exploiting immigrant workers whose blood sweat and tears delivered them their wealth. Not unexpectedly, they then blamed immigrants as being the reason poor white men were poor. So nothing has really changed has it?

American white arrogance has led to an epidemic of leadership stupidity when it comes to decision making. They seem to still believe that the Chinese are peasants. In the words of JD Vance;

“We borrow money from Chinese peasants to buy the things those Chinese peasants manufacture”

This my friends is the man who becomes president if Trump drops dead from stupidity tomorrow. Even then, the joke would be on us.

What you have to understand, is 21% of Americans are illiterate and 54% have a literacy rate at or below 6th grade. In stark contrast, China, has literacy rate of 97%. Normally the answer to this statement is where do the figures come from? This is not unlike when politicians question the numbers of dead women and children being reported in Gaza. Everything that doesn’t fit their narrative is a lie. In reality, the whole premise of ‘Make America Great’ is the biggest lie in history.

Today I am running what I call ‘China Day’ over on X and BlueSky and I’ll add some of that content here too as notes. The reason I’m doing this, is to dispel the nonsense that a backward facing US administration is spewing to poorly educated Americans, that the CCP is evil and the enemy of America. Does it represent a threat to the US? Absolutely it does, but don’t flatter yourself to believe it’s because they want to invade. They don’t need to do that they simply aim to crush the US economically, having used the money the America has spent while laughing about ‘exploiting’ them. Believe when I say, the joke is on us not them.

To say it’s possible to bring back manufacturing to America is not just a lie, it’s a criminal an act of calculated deception. American jobs. 401k’s are being flushed down the toilet by a convicted criminal perpetrating a criminal act of deceit on the American people.

Tomorrow we’ll explore in detail how American investment in Chinese manufacturing has led to a position where a US President is terrified of the power of the Chinese economy. China is a country leaving America a decade behind holding a debt of $36 trillion soon to be $40 trillion. Trump is critically aware that the US may struggling to refinance its own debt. He’s is a busted flush and China is going to take him out for a walk to remind him. Given Donny Delinquent has now rolled the dice and threatened further 50% tariffs if China doesn’t remove it’s 34% retaliatory duties. We now have a front row seat to a full on trade war if Xi does not blink first. I’m sure there are many calculations going on in China right now and I am certain Trump’s economic advisors are visibly sweating. I know Elon Musk is.