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SammyG's avatar

Excellent post.

The Peaceful Solution-Plan B's avatar

The four elements of successful nonviolent resistance

Professor Erica Chenoweth's research identifies four key elements that significantly increase the likelihood of a nonviolent protest movement succeeding. These elements, developed with Maria Stephan, are based on an analysis of civil resistance campaigns from 1900 to 2006. 

The four elements of successful nonviolent resistance

1. Mass participation and momentum: Campaigns with large-scale, diverse, and sustained participation are much more likely to succeed. Broad participation, sometimes cited as a 3.5% threshold of the population, provides legitimacy and leverage. This large and diverse base imposes significant costs on the opponent, whether economic, social, or reputational.

2. Strategic innovation and tactical variety: Successful movements go beyond single events like mass protests. They employ a wide array of tactics, including strikes, boycotts, and other forms of non-cooperation, to maintain pressure and adapt to repression. Creativity helps to inject humor and morale into resistance, which can weaken the opponent's resolve.

3. Loyalty shifts: A key component of success is inducing defections or a withdrawal of support from the opponent's "pillars of support"—the institutions and groups a regime relies on to maintain power. These pillars include security forces, business elites, state media, and civil society organizations.

4. Organizational discipline: Movements must stay organized and nonviolent, especially when facing state repression. When regimes react to protests with violence, disciplined nonviolent movements can use the "backfire effect" to turn that repression against the regime, winning broader public sympathy and support. 

Later research and updates

Chenoweth's more recent work has provided nuance and updates to the original findings:

• The 3.5% rule is a guideline, not a guarantee. The "3.5% rule"—the finding that no government has withstood a challenge of at least 3.5% of its population actively mobilized—is a descriptive observation, not an absolute law. Some movements have failed despite reaching this number, and many have succeeded with smaller numbers.

• The importance of timing and context. For instance, while large numbers matter, momentum (the velocity of events combined with mass participation) can be a more important predictor of success.

• The rise of "smart repression." Authoritarian regimes have adapted to the digital age, using the internet and social media to their advantage. This requires movements to think beyond online organizing and build resilient coalitions.

• The decline in success rates. Recent data suggests that success rates for mass movements, both nonviolent and violent, have declined since 2010. This signals the need for movements to update their strategies, particularly by building stronger, more resilient coalitions.

Please: Resist. Stop cooperating. Stop spending. Stop the fascist takeover.

Thank you for restacking, and sharing, to help Spread the Word!

Emma's avatar

Fascinated to know the plan to get people to stop spending...

The Peaceful Solution-Plan B's avatar

The Peaceful Solution-Part 1

How much do you want to stop His Royal Heinous and the fascist takeover of the country?

Enough that you’re willing to make a small sacrifice? Like altering your spending habits for a month or two or three? That could be all it would take to get the attention of the oligarchs (formerly known as The Robber Barons in the first Gilded Age, also The Fat Cats, The Greedy Bastards).

A brief demonstration of We, the People’s, power of the purse could persuade them to quit supporting HRH and the politicians who enable him.

We quit spending, except on essentials, businesses lose money, stock market goes down, Greedy Bastards pay attention to our demands.

Greedy Bastards own most of the politicians of both major parties. GBs start losing money, tell politicians to change course and do what We, the People want.

We are running out of peaceful options. The legislature and Supreme Court are controlled by HRH. He controls the executive branch, including the Military, Justice Department, FBI, ICE, the IRS. He controls all levers of power.

We, the people, still have the power of the purse. No one can control our spending, or lack of spending. When all else fails we can go on a spending strike until the business community stops supporting HRH and the politicians who enable him.

Economic warfare is the only thing the oligarchs, the business community will understand and act on. Call it a Surreptitious General Strike (Quiet Quitting). Go to work, do as little as possible. Stop spending money except on essentials. Quit feeding the corporate beast that supports the HRH.

Stop participating. Nearly 70% of the U.S. economy is driven by consumer spending. All of us. Hobble the economy and the stock market. Mahatma Gandhi drove the British from India by peaceful civil disobedience and economic disruption. We can stop the fascist takeover in  the same way.

We can keep rehashing past and present atrocities until our access to the internet is taken away by the regime, or we can DO something!

Please: Resist. Stop cooperating. Stop spending. Stop the fascist takeover.

Thank you for restacking, and sharing, to help Spread the Word!

Robyn's avatar

1. NO GAMBLING

2. If you can afford it, buy a box of fresh food/pasta/tin tomatoes/cornfor the Community Food Drive (may include some specialties like Chinese veg & Mexican food noodles/rice/beans/etc

3. Only support your local independent supermarket or farmers market. If markets are a little higher priced just work out how much your gas costs to drive to big food conglomerates. The price difference may only be cents & fruit & veg will be fresher.Ask your neighbour if they want to come with, then go in their car next week. Leave kids at home when you shop if you can, see how much you save!!

4. Unless your child has grown out of their shoes, see if your school has a swap shop/swap or buy there. Apart from shoes, kids can usually keep wearing the same clothes for another couple of weeks.

5. If you have a sewing machine & know how to use it, another Mother or father may be able to use it. It’s amazing how kids love to sew on a machine when they know how—age related of course.

6. Buy packets of seeds for herbs & spinach, kale etc for micro herbs. Will last for weeks. If the kids do it routinely they’ll love it. Place a recycled take-out container, making sure it’s clean with no detergent residues. Cover bottom with seed mix, washed cotton wool, rinsed paper towel-remove bleaches etc. Wet with water, just covering bottom. Sprinkle seeds over the bottom & spread out. Put on lid, place on windowsill & wait until seeds sprout-couple of days. Wait until they grow a couple of inches b4 cutting. Mung beans are good grown like this. If growing Alfalfa, make sure they are washed well after harvesting. Good luck. This is a great way to have fresh greens if you are travelling in a motorhome, snip off a few each day. Make another container every third day to keep up supplies. Carrot tops a tasty from seeds too.

PS, buy seed from Seed Co-op. You may have to buy more, you can pass what you don’t want onto the Community Food Market. Cheaper in the long run. Good luck everyone. Elbows up💪🏼🌏🌈

Emma's avatar

As you can see just from the last two years, those arguments are not working. We need a different strategy. At a minimum dump amazon/ paramount/starlink, don't rent from enterprise, don't buy tesla or chevy, and divest ira and 401k from vanguard. Can we just start with those? Get a million people to sign on? We need a place to start.

The Peaceful Solution-Plan B's avatar

“Politics is the art of the possible, the attainable — the art of the next best.”

Otto von Bismarck

The Peaceful Solution-Plan B's avatar

Targeted Boycotts are Ineffective

We are in the middle of a five alarm fire, and while most of the country remains oblivious, too many in the resistance are wasting time discussing how to organize and implement a fire department. What’s needed from the general public is total non cooperation and a general Spending Strike. NOW!

During the Vietnam/Nixon/Civil Rights Era, targeted boycotts were a hot topic on the left. Almost all failed because it was too complicated. Too many corporations to keep track of. Much the same today.

The Montgomery bus boycott worked because of its simplicity, but it took a year, after fifteen years of organizing, and those folks were highly motivated and had very charismatic leaders. People now talk about Tesla and Target boycotts working, but they haven’t. Neither company has changed their behavior. Losing stock value is not success.

Disney boycott:

Hurrah! A targeted boycott that worked. (Or did it? Some argue that Kimmel’s contract was the motivating factor.) A good first step. But if you start boycotting all the corporations that are enabling the fascist takeover of the country, soon you’re at a general spending strike, which is a good thing. Let’s do it!

We, the People, can’t easily or safely withhold our tax dollars that are allowing this corrupt government to function. Our tax dollars fund the fascist takeover.

But as consumers we can indirectly withhold our tax dollars. Consumer spending is about 70% of the economy. That spending ends up as tax dollars. Stop unnecessary spending and the money funding the fascist takeover will disappear.

Why targeted boycotts are ineffective:

Boycotts often fail because they require massive, sustained participation to create meaningful financial pressure, lack clear alternatives for consumers, generate insufficient negative media attention, and are easily weathered by companies waiting for the protest to fade. Additionally, the complex nature of modern capitalism and the proliferation of corporate conglomerates can make it difficult for boycotters to effectively target and impact a company's bottom line or reputation, especially when companies have multiple revenue streams, like real estate, that aren't affected by consumer boycotts.

In 2020, Goya Foods praised President Donald Trump on social media, which caused those in opposition to Trump to boycott their products. Trump loyalists simultaneously initated a counter-boycott, where consumers bought mass quantities of their products, in response. The boycott caused Goya profits to increase dramatically because Trump supporters started an opposing campaign. 

Targeted boycotts are used to change the behavior of a corporation. We are trying to change the behavior of a fascist regime, an entire government. We must attack the entire economy.

“It’s the economy, stupid” as James Carville famously told Bill Clinton. It was then, and still is, in politics. The reelection of His Royal Heinous is largely attributed to the misperceived state of the economy. That’s what must be attacked, not individual corporations. The overall economy must suffer before the oligarchs (Greedy Bastards) will pay attention.

HRH will not destroy the economy on his own (TACO). He will find a way to prop it up (like lower interest rates) because the economy and stock market are his report card and key to keeping power. The key to keeping power, as it is in Russia, China, Hungary, Turkey. They give the people a somewhat decent standard of living, and in exchange, the people have no political power. Only the autocrat has that. Unlimited.

It will be up to the people to effect the economic pressure necessary to stop and reverse the fascist takeover of America.

Spending Strike. Stop spending except on essentials. We, the People, are funding the fascist takeover of America. Please help us Spread the Word!, far, wide, and quickly, before the fascists takedown our means of communication.

Please: Resist. Stop cooperating. Stop spending. Stop the fascist takeover.

Thank you for restacking, and sharing, to help Spread the Word!

Emma's avatar

That is simply not reality. It will not happen. In the meantime we lose a lot.

Nickie's avatar

On your second ‘point’, I started following Meanwhile in Canada’ & ‘Canadians against all things Trump’ pages on FB - they are doing a great job of injecting the humor (probably easier when they don’t live here) !

Dan Quinn's avatar

When I was 26 years old in 1987 i traveled to Europe for 2 months by myself, this was a complete eye opener. The Europeans I met knew more than most Americans including myself about American politics and history. I also realized how Competitive and Greedy the USA was at the time and it is much worse now. Most people in the USA need to get out of the house (silos) and travel to experience what is really going on in their country. Thanks Martin for your knowledge

Truth Matters's avatar

Appreciate your kind words Dan - Martin

Susan I Weinstein's avatar

“Power to the People” once meant dedicated teachers going all over the country in teams for teach-ins. PTAs were on board. Basics of how democracy was designed with “balance of powers” in the constitution. The idea was educating voters to understand what approach was in their self-interest and what was not. And thete were summaries to take home. We have too little citizen education sessions as a movement. History of trade wars-why tariffs were never an answer. Foreign wars-real objectives and stated. These sessions happened. How people end costly wars by deluded rulers.

PLawson85's avatar

Power to the People is a PAC owned by Our Leader here in Texas and Future President Beto O’Rourke.

Susan I Weinstein's avatar

It is also a well-known slogan and song used by antiwar groups, who organized the 500,000 person march on Washington to end The Vietnam War. Probably why the pact you refer to adopted the phrase.

Igacehariv's avatar

It is, and it has always been those who have spoken up regardless of what anybody thinks, those who have dared to act in spite of what is and was up against them what has changed history and the world. It takes courage and caring to tell it like it is.

It has always been more difficult to be honest, to have integrity, to own up to once mistakes. The easier thing to do has always been to follow the lead of others, and to cave in if that means to keep one out of trouble and afloat.

I do respect and admire those who, like you, have the nerve to be candid.

There is a classic movie that Americans watch or used to watch at Christmas called It’s a beautiful life. Do they think that George, who I believe was the main character, was a socialist because he tried to help all those people who were in trouble so that his town would prosper? I do believe that George was very much a capitalist, but he also had smarts, compassion, and a keen vision for business. As you say, labels can really influence people’s perceptions and that is what this administration, Republicans and some Democrats are exploiting now, in addition to the selective blindness people choose to display out of ignorance or convenience.

Thank you for your insight.

Truth Matters's avatar

Thank you for your kind words and your contribution to the conversation. I appreciate your support - Martin

Larry Modlin's avatar

I hope you enjoyed my large coffee. I so agree with your policies,stated so clearly in this article. You do indeed understand the political subsets in America better than most of us. You have forced me to accept that I am a people's Democrat, though I had been a registered Republican for 50 years. I realize that I do support aid to the poor and health care for all, although we will need to import a lot more cheap doctors who care more about medicine than money ( like ours used to). I don't think that homelessness nor fully funded childcare will be possible, especially with all the rigid guidelines and building codes, applied to this ventures, etc. l also believe that smaller countries like in Scandanavia, like small states in our country like New Hampshire and Vermont have a far better chance to be populated by citizens that care for the unfortunate rather than larger, less educated populations found in more rural, less educated countries and states. I hope we together can move the needle gently to what ever brings more fairness to more people, regardless of race or ethnicity. The genuine opponents are greed and bigotry and I don't know of a cure. I look forward to your articles every day and pass them on.

Truth Matters's avatar

Thanks for the large coffee Larry, it all gets invested in research resources and it makes a big difference, so I appreciate you.

I think you and I have been around the block enough to know that pragmatism is critical to progress. I believe with a passion that a fairer society is more than possible.

I used Norway this week as a benchmark for a very specific reason. The claim is that these small nations can deliver a fairer society because they’re small is a red herring. It’s about the foundational values of a society where the fundamentals in life are a right.

It’s about choice. American politicians CHOOSE not to build a fairer society. They choose to stigmatise the vulnerable and the low paid that are the recipients not of benefits, but failure born out of corporate welfare that allows big business to rely on their employees receiving food stamps and other associated benefits.

America, CAN and SHOULD do better in a people first environment. - Martin

PLawson85's avatar

Will you accept the Unification of the Democratic Party? Or will you just accept the Infighting and have the Social Democrats just hijack the midterms and debase everyone who’s in the middle thus giving Orange Mussolini the Authoritarian Power he wants?

Alberto Guzman's avatar

Martin,

Indeed United States of the America, is BROKEN.

You are a true believer man and don't need to be a scientist to see the really that US citizens are living.

I love your analysis and you are no wrong. You read, constantly, you have been on the US soil for many years and you have the authority to speak.

Thank you so much for your newsletter

Pamela Payne's avatar

Well said!! I agree wholeheartedly.

Simon Sez's avatar

Martin, there is no doubt that your contribution to our sanity is altruistic.

There is no question that your knowledge of the American society is complete and exactly the fact that you are not American

gives you the right view of the situation.

The hypocrisy of the old democrats must stop; they must embrace and help a new generation,

like Bernie Sanders and Barack Obama are doing, grooming young talents for the future.

It is their country, it is normal to want more than crumbs from the corporate table.

David Beaver's avatar

You say $60 million could fund SNAP for 7 months, but SNAP is something like $101 billion/year... not sure what you intended to say but there's an error somewhere.

Truth Matters's avatar

Complete brain fart by me David, thanks for drawing it to my attention. I must learn to get the number of zeros right. I apologize unreservedly and have corrected the piece.

This correction will NOT appear on the email posted unfortunately, but the live article has been duly amended as I hang my head in shame - Martin

John's avatar

Yup

Agent of Chaotic Respite's avatar

The "Tea Party" was astroturf, funded by the Koch brothers. This is NOT that. I don't dispute the article, merely the title. 😎✌️

Truth Matters's avatar

The title was an open question., not a statement. Thanks for your answer. - Martin

PLawson85's avatar

The Cocaine Brothers as I call them was Fueled and Enabled hard by the Alt-Left because they Antagonized President Obama just because his ACA bill didn’t have the public option. He was faced with Extreme Racism and Animosity and the Far Left pretty much snubbed him and turned their nose and let the Tea Party take over. (Kinda like how FDR would do the same whenever Black Americans were Lynched and Terrorized by the KKK)The SAME MAGAts were formerly the Tea Party.

Rick (equity muse) Botelho's avatar

Many Won, Money Lost. Share this celebratory song. A David and Goliath story about the integrity of Abdul El-Sayed defeating 60-70 million dollars against outside money.https://equitymoonshot.substack.com/p/many-won-money-lost-share-this-celebratory

Mary Nelson's avatar

Yes! But with a much better name. Teabaggers?! What were they thinking?!

Tayloredtofit's avatar

The American people have been left in the dark, thinking rubbing two candles together would light the flame. The two party system has become a first past the post race to get paid. The midterms are literally a life-or-death shootout at the O.K. Corral.