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SammyG's avatar

Excellent post.

The Peaceful Solution-Plan B's avatar

The four elements of successful nonviolent resistance

Professor Erica Chenoweth's research identifies four key elements that significantly increase the likelihood of a nonviolent protest movement succeeding. These elements, developed with Maria Stephan, are based on an analysis of civil resistance campaigns from 1900 to 2006. 

The four elements of successful nonviolent resistance

1. Mass participation and momentum: Campaigns with large-scale, diverse, and sustained participation are much more likely to succeed. Broad participation, sometimes cited as a 3.5% threshold of the population, provides legitimacy and leverage. This large and diverse base imposes significant costs on the opponent, whether economic, social, or reputational.

2. Strategic innovation and tactical variety: Successful movements go beyond single events like mass protests. They employ a wide array of tactics, including strikes, boycotts, and other forms of non-cooperation, to maintain pressure and adapt to repression. Creativity helps to inject humor and morale into resistance, which can weaken the opponent's resolve.

3. Loyalty shifts: A key component of success is inducing defections or a withdrawal of support from the opponent's "pillars of support"—the institutions and groups a regime relies on to maintain power. These pillars include security forces, business elites, state media, and civil society organizations.

4. Organizational discipline: Movements must stay organized and nonviolent, especially when facing state repression. When regimes react to protests with violence, disciplined nonviolent movements can use the "backfire effect" to turn that repression against the regime, winning broader public sympathy and support. 

Later research and updates

Chenoweth's more recent work has provided nuance and updates to the original findings:

• The 3.5% rule is a guideline, not a guarantee. The "3.5% rule"—the finding that no government has withstood a challenge of at least 3.5% of its population actively mobilized—is a descriptive observation, not an absolute law. Some movements have failed despite reaching this number, and many have succeeded with smaller numbers.

• The importance of timing and context. For instance, while large numbers matter, momentum (the velocity of events combined with mass participation) can be a more important predictor of success.

• The rise of "smart repression." Authoritarian regimes have adapted to the digital age, using the internet and social media to their advantage. This requires movements to think beyond online organizing and build resilient coalitions.

• The decline in success rates. Recent data suggests that success rates for mass movements, both nonviolent and violent, have declined since 2010. This signals the need for movements to update their strategies, particularly by building stronger, more resilient coalitions.

Please: Resist. Stop cooperating. Stop spending. Stop the fascist takeover.

Thank you for restacking, and sharing, to help Spread the Word!

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