In search of an upside

In these challenging times, it seems a tragedy to me that the only hope America has is the self immolation of a madman

There is little wonder the American people have lost faith in politicians and their self-serving agendas. Trust remains at an all-time low as we hear about more unacceptable sexual abuse by those in positions of power. At a time when the world is on fire, the last thing we should be worrying about is whether a legislator can keep his genitals in his pants. Once trust is gone, it rarely returns, and both parties have shown little appetite for placing the safety of women over political expediency. It’s a cancer at the heart of power that never seems to be addressed.

Let me begin by saying EVERY American should take heart from the electoral obliteration of Viktor Orbán. Today, I featured a piece in a note earlier today by a Hungarian mom who perfectly documented Orbán’s fall from a lived-experience perspective. If you want to understand how the power of the people can defeat tyranny, it is essential to read what Zsofi wrote of Orbán:

He rewrote the electoral law to favor his party. Then he rewrote the constitution. He packed the Constitutional Court, the regular courts, and every significant state institution with loyalists - people who owed their positions entirely to him and knew it. He didn’t need to imprison opponents or send police to break up rallies. He just made sure that every institutional lever was operated by someone whose career depended on his continued power.

Image - Gabriel Bouys/AFP via Getty Images

Now you understand why Trump and his MAGA acolytes admired him so much. To add further context, Kevin Roberts, head of the Heritage Foundation, who authored Project 2025, said:

“Modern Hungary is not just a model for conservative statecraft, it is THE model”

It appears that Zsofi’s summary above was the model for the tyranny the US is now forced to endure. It’s a conservative template for state-sponsored corruption. Orbán’s defeat is certainly a blow for the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), which has long had deep ties and financial links to Orbán. A man who used taxpayer money to fund CPAC events in Hungary that were attended by many of the MAGA faithful. Now that there’s a new sheriff in town, those days are gone.

Péter Magyar has been elected the new Prime Minister of Hungary, with a supermajority, and his position is very clear, as reported by Mari Eccles and Max Grierain Politico.eu :

“The state is not going to finance CPAC [Conservative Political Action Conference] events, or Mathias Corvinus Collegium institutions … I think this was a criminal offense, party financing mixed up with government expenditures,” Magyar said on Monday. “The future authorities will have to examine or investigate.”

MCC Brussels — seen by many in the city as a mouthpiece of Orbán’s government, although it maintains it is politically independent — is one of the EU’s loudest and most controversial detractors. Its survival would represent the resilience of Orbán’s values within the heart of the EU.

Why is Hungary important? Because it provides a template for how to mobilise ‘we the people’ to defeat a regime that has taken control of every lever of government to retain power. Of course, Hungary is a small country with a population of just 9.6 million, but it was a government that literally helped Putin disrupt the world's largest single market and top trading bloc.

Returning to Zsofi’s piece, she is on point when she states:

His [Orbán’s] most powerful weapon wasn’t the captured courts, or the controlled media, or even the money, though all of those mattered. His most powerful weapon was the idea he planted in people’s minds: that nothing could change. The system was too entrenched. The opposition was too weak and too compromised. That showing up to vote was a performance for people who liked to feel righteous but didn’t actually change anything.

This is the fatalism that authoritarian systems cultivate deliberately. And it works - until it doesn’t.

I see hints of this all over social media regarding unseating Trump. What can we do? What’s the solution? One thing is evident: not enough people are prepared to be inconvenienced, that’s for sure. I would point you to my piece in March about economic disengagement:

If this is off the table, as it seems it is, then it’s down to hope and prayer. Not exactly my idea of a plan. Bizarrely, however, there is someone riding in on a white charger to save the day, Donald ‘Jesus’ Trump. With little help from Democrats, he’s politically self-emolulatuing before our very eyes, and the Republicans appear to be soaked in gasoline.

When it comes to the Iran War, there remains the belief that overwhelming force will prevail, despite absolutely no evidence to support this assertion. It’s very difficult to assess where this might go in the coming days, because Iran knows this is all about waiting out the US. Be in no doubt, Trump wants to control Iranian oil; everything else is in service of this goal. Iran is happy to play along in negotiations because every day that passes further hurts the global economy.

It is hard to overestimate how desperate Trump is to see an end to this, but the reality is, it’s going to be VERY expensive. I suspect that he would settle for profit sharing on oil revenue at the drop of a hat because, ultimately, this was his internalised justification for the war in the first place. As things stand, Iran can withstand the US blockade for about 2 months, which is a long time given the global economic pressure, not to mention the US Navy’s readiness. For example, the Gerald R Ford carrier has now been deployed for 279 days, the longest deployment ever for a US aircraft carrier.

This brings me to something that led me to re-edit this piece today, following an unhinged and deeply worrying press conference by a Secretary of Defence desperately in search of narcissistic supply. Before I begin to address this religious crusade-laden fairytale, let’s begin with some numbers. In relation to the initial attack on Iran, just 27% of the American people approved of the strikes

Once the conflict began, we move to Trump’s handling of the war

This war does not and never has had the support of the majority of the American people. 61% disaprove of Trump’s handling of the conflict, with 44% strongly disapproving, while just 37% approve. For those who did not see the unhinged presser, I’ve linked it below

The opening of this was predictable propaganda asserting victory and fealty to his great leader, but then, at 5:17, it became deeply disturbing when he descended into an all-out unprovoked assault on the media. It struck me that the man doth protest too much. It should be noted that this was broadcast worldwide. In a matter of minutes, he wrote the script for the next IRGC trolling video. If you were an ally watching it in Europe, it was reminiscent of a conversation Hitler might have had with himself in the final days in the bunker in 1945 while on methamphetamine.

It is NOT the job of a free press to provide validation for a war of choice that is illegal under international law. It is the job of the press to ask legitimate questions so the public can be better informed on actions carried out in their name. Do you think anyone would have found out about the deaths of 165 elementary school children on day one had the press been complicit in Hegseth’s initial denials? It is NOT the job of the media to pick a side; it’s their job to report the truth without fear or favour, as I do every day.

Image - Getty Images

Hegseth delivers these press conferences with pre-prepared notes on past grievances, laden with totally irrelevant whataboutisms. The really worrying part is that he also comes armed with specially selected passages of scripture to sprinkle on his assertion that this is a righteous Holy War. It’s NOT, it’s just another war in which thousands of innocent civilians have already died. No note from God delivers forgiveness to those ordering the killing. Hegseth is the poster boy for the Pharisee class; his words are textbook projection. He sees himself as the witchfinder general of violence, providing absolution for murder in advance.

The press does not seek to disrespect the brave men and women serving their country; to suggest otherwise is beyond disgusting, but this is not a man beyond disgust. He speaks of miracles of rescued airmen we have never seen, just as he ignored the self-destruction of millions of dollars of US hardware resulting from these miracles. It’s NOT unpatriotic to ask questions; it’s an imperative. The US military, unlike him, is not in search of glory; it quietly and professionally carries out its orders without fanfare. That’s how a professional military should operate.

There is no honour in the glorification of war, because war should always be the last resort of any civilised nation. Hegseth has changed that and, in my view, brought shame and disrespect to the office he holds. The character of a man is not measured by his endless ability to chastise and abuse those who disagree with him; it is measured by something Hegseth is incapable of.

Quoting from a letter from his own mother, Penelope, on April 30th 2018:

You are an abuser of women — that is the ugly truth and I have no respect for any man that belittles, lies, cheats, sleeps around, and uses women for his own power and ego. You are that man (and have been for years) and as your mother, it pains me and embarrasses me to say that, but it is the sad, sad truth.

Never has it been more evident that this is not about the interests of the American people, but rather ‘his own power and ego’. He’s the stereotypical go to church on Sunday for a performative act of piety, then return home to abuse your wife behind the protection of a closed door. That’s not a man, that’s a coward.

Be in no doubt, he’s happy to give a sermon to the troops before sending them to their death; that's who he is. A vile monster. For anyone to claim this conflict is over or nearly over is delusional. This is a narrative aimed purely at steadying the markets. A fairytale interdiction justified on a web of lies.

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