From a preservation of democracy point of view, it’s hard to look in any direction in the US and not see a fire raging. As a writer and thinker, trying to make sense of the nonsensical becomes ever more difficult as the days pass. Logic has long dictated that US politics is out of control and that this fantasy of the US being a beacon of democratic values is just that, a fairytale.
I’m often criticised for my view that capitalism is not the enemy; it’s the people who shape it who are the problem. Whether we like it or not, we humans are an inherently self-serving species. History teaches us that just as we can deliver social equity and embrace diversity, we can be genocidal, selfish monsters. We are unquestionably predators at heart, and as such, we are susceptible to tribalism because the killer instinct is strangely accompanied by insecurity and fear of isolation. If you add to that our vulnerability to addiction and greed, it’s not difficult to see how we arrived where we are today.
In the time I had away from writing last week, I listened, I watched, and I learned that the generosity of spirit and intent is more than alive and kicking, but it’s being suffocated by those who shout the loudest and those who earn money telling us what we want to hear rather than what we need to hear. Nobody wants to hear someone tell them how broken the world is; they would rather hear a narrative that tells them that the pain they are enduring will soon pass and that the land of milk and honey is just around the corner. IT’S NOT, and someone has to be the one to say it.
If you ask me, will good prevail? I can hand on heart tell you that I believe it will, and not just because I’m a ‘glass half full’ sort of guy, but because tyranny is exhausting for the tyrant, and eventually the ‘enough is enough’ moment arrives, when the silent majority rise up to restore balance. To begin addressing the problem, you first have to recognise that one exists. This brings us back to capitalism and its implementation, and can it be tamed?
I have long believed that a campaign of relentless and sustained economic disengagement is warranted, given that the US economy is 70% driven by consumer spending. There are, however, two considerations to bear in mind. Firstly, 49% of current consumer spending in the US comes from the top 10%. This is because the widening wealth gap has left a larger share of disposable income in their hands, as the AI market bubble has fueled stock prices. There is little doubt that, much to Trump’s delight, they are spending like drunken sailors and have no intention of being the turkeys voting for Thanksgiving.
While that still leaves 51% of consumer spending in the hands of the bottom 90%, the reality is that the further down the economic food chain, the more the spending shifts from disposable income to essential spending, which is still labelled as consumer spending, even though it might be on healthcare, energy and other required spending rather than spare cash. I’ll go into more detail on this in the next piece. If you’d like to read my thoughts on targeted economic disengagement, see below:
Economic disengagement is the only answer.
Let me begin today by saying a big thank you to those who engaged with PART ONE of this two-part post. Part one was my first swing. By way of explanation, my approach is to select a broad subject, in this case, to deal with the calls for a general strike and an economic blackout following the outstanding success of the No King’s Day protests on October …
I would just emphasise that a general strike is a pipe dream; the days of such unified action are a relic of the past in an economic environment where businesses are looking for any excuse to cut payroll. Not only is it not a viable option, but those advocating for it are also often the ones who are comfortable enough to be insulated from the impact. It’s about making smart decisions, but there’s no avoiding the reality that inconvenience is the enemy of economic activism, particularly if it requires a sustained commitment.
I have long stated that capitalism is NOT the enemy. It’s this toxic form of unbridled deregulated capitalism arising from the removal of the required element of social responsibility. Remove it, and capitalism becomes an insatiable greed machine. Listen, I’ve lived a good life, and at 66, it’s not by any means over. I’m not a well-educated man. I went into the job market working for the UK Civil Service with baseline secondary exam results. Within a very short time, I realised that working for someone else was not for me, which set me on a journey into self-employment for the best part of 40 years.
What I do understand is an earning environment in which there is no sick pay, parental leave, or paid holidays to rely on. If I didn’t work, I didn’t get paid, so I’m no stranger to what many in the US are forced to endure when it comes to job insecurity and the mental stress that accompany it. One of the reasons I believe in the American people is the work I did in the United States as a sound engineer, on jobs that periodically took me across the Atlantic. I know who the American people are; I have made so many friends there over the years. Having also worked to bring music to deprived neighbourhoods, I also know of the struggles within a system that has never been kind to the poor and the vulnerable, even in times of plenty.
When I share my thoughts, they are the product of both enjoying success and enduring the consequences of failure. I know what it’s like to feel so low you consider taking your own life, so despair is no stranger to me either. If you asked me, would I change any of it? While I clearly was not a fan of not wanting to be here anymore, the experience taught me to better understand others' pain, and none of it prevented me from raising three children, putting them through college and university, in addition to sending my eldest daughter to bar school to qualify as a barrister.
I am the product of social housing, which delivered opportunity; my kids were the first in our family to attend university, and if I had one regret, it was that my late father never lived to see his granddaughter qualify as a barrister. As I delivered the eulogy at his funeral, she was taking the bar exam in London. He would have been very proud of what she achieved, as am I. Of course. I was lucky to see each of my children secure well-paid jobs in the Civil Service, where I began my working life. What is very striking to me, however, is that even though my son got a first-class honours degree in sports psychology and has a well-paid job, he will tell you that home ownership is beyond his reach in the world we now inhabit, and that is a failure of my generation.
The point I am clumsily trying to make is that my thoughts and views are not a result of a privileged life, although I have been to some pretty cool parties and enjoyed first-class air travel as part of my work. Everything I had and lost was down to me, so here speaks the voice of someone who’s been there and got the T-shirt. I have learned much after receiving my PhD from the University of Life; the primary lesson is NEVER to believe what politicians tell you, and certainly don’t believe the promises of a felonious, malignant narcissist president.
Those of us who exercise the dying art of critical thinking can easily come to the conclusion that everyone thinks like us when it comes to supporting Trump. Our default position is ‘How can anyone take this idiot seriously?’ The reality is that millions of Americans do, even now after everything he’s done. This brings us full circle to our human vulnerability. We just hate to be wrong. Humans have a major problem admitting we made a mistake, and the hard right has exploited that trait masterfully to their political advantage.
There is no better example than in the UK, ten years on from BREXIT. Despite overwhelming evidence that leaving the EU has cost the UK between 4% and 6% of GDP, almost crippling the economy, finding a Brexiteer prepared to admit it was a mistake is like going on a treasure hunt for rocking horse shit. We just hate admitting we were wrong, even if it’s hurting us economically. That’s very weird to me.
The challenge America faces at this moment is that Trump has mastered the art of ‘jam tomorrow politics’. My view, as someone who can see through the parallel universe he’s invited Americans to live in, is that his not-insubstantial support is divided into two camps. Those who know exactly who he is and what he’s doing, but don’t care because they are making good money from it. The remaining bulk of the support comes from those who are in his cult. The segment of his base that, no matter what he does or who he kills, will proudly vote for him because they bizarrely believe he is one of them.
He has always believed in his tiny little mind that the Proud Boy Brigade, as I like to call them, will quite literally go to war for him if the judicial system eventually catches up with him. He genuinely believes they will die for him. This was the entire rationale behind the $1,776 billion slush fund intended to reward their support. Of course, this has now been halted by the courts, but don’t expect it to disappear, especially as the pressure grows, should he perceive his power to be waning. If you combine these thug cult members prepared to operate outside the law and his ICE federal militia, also known to paint outside the legal lines, I’m convinced he intends to retain power, whatever the cost.
The simple fact of the matter is that there is no end to the Iran war on the horizon. When we hit July, global energy inventories will begin to stutter, and at that point, oil and gas prices will soar. Then there will be no lies that can hide or manipulate the markets. Be in no doubt, the leadership in Tehran is playing Trump like a Stradivarius. They believe that rising gas prices at home and the upcoming midterms are his kryptonite, especially as the national debt nears $40 trillion. They are quite happy to trade limited blows with the US military to emphasise to the maritime insurance companies for ships wanting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz that the risks outweigh the cost benefits.
Trump literally has no options. The moment he resumes major strikes on Iran, the markets will tumble, and oil prices will soar. The Iranians have long gamed out their response, no doubt while consulting with China and Russia on the most effective way forward. Don’t forget that while global inventory is diminishing, China holds the world's largest oil stockpile, with over a billion barrels, which is increasing in value every day. Iran knows it will extract reparations from Trump, and I suspect he knows it too. It’s just a matter of how much and when. All I can do is repeat my belief that there is no win for Trump in Iran, but he does have everything to lose.
If you step back, I challenge you to see an upside to any policy agenda this regime is pushing. The economy is failing, tariffs have failed, and his slush fund is dead on arrival in the Senate. US PCE inflation just hit a three-year high, rising by 3.8% in the 12 months through April. As per CNN reporting by Alicia Wallace :
Americans continued to tap their piggy banks: Their personal saving rate (saving as a percentage of after-tax income) dropped to 2.6% in April, marking the lowest rate since June 2022, when inflation hit a four-decade high. At the start of the year, the savings rate was 4.3%.
The report goes on to note:
“Americans are being squeezed financially. Inflation is at a three-year high and personal savings has cratered to one of the lowest levels in the past 20 years,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote in a note Thursday. “Many Americans are spending more than the income they have coming in. This is not sustainable, especially for lower-income and middle-class households.”
Trump continues to attempt to sell the narrative that a deal with Iran is imminent (which it is NOT). It’s no more imminent than the Iranian nuclear threat was on the day he began this attempt at economic suicide. If the problem were solved today, gas prices from before 2008 are unlikely to return this year, if ever, I’m afraid.
In the next episode in this series, we’ll examine the wider economic implications of Trump’s failed economic agenda and why he’s being forced into international extortion to try and balance the books. The US finds itself in a very precarious position with an all-in bet on an AI race I believe it can’t win. There is no question that Trump is destined to fail; the question is how much damage will he have done before he’s dragged kicking and screaming from the White House?
I don't want to keep repeating the same truth, but it is still the truth. Once we are done being subjugated by these psychopaths, or the 1%, we will stand together as the 99% and take this world to it's new beginning. A world in which we finally get to choose our destiny. I'm patiently waiting. I would like to see it sooner than later to reduce suffering. I understand that people will have to get to a discomfort level that is so great that there is no other choice, but it will happen.
If the illusion of change does not work to stop the revolution, they are getting their systems in place now for surveillance, and a prison and every town. It was never for immigrants. Listen to Chris Hedges