America has been here before when it went to war based on ‘known unknowns’. Does Iran pose a threat in the region? No question it does, but is going to war the solution to the problem? I think not. This is a conflict being led by a madman, currently under indictment from the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. It is yet another act of opportunism, in which Netanyahu has calculated that Trump will have no choice but to fall in line. Articles linked in this piece can be viewed for free, as they are provided courtesy of my subscriptions to the publications. Please take the opportunity to understand the context of what I am saying here.
Plans have already been drawn up, and all Trump has to do is press the go button. As reported by The Hill yesterday:
The pattern is now well-worn. A president — Democrat or Republican — considers the use of force. A bipartisan group of lawmakers demands a vote. The White House sidesteps congressional approval. And a handful of Members introduce War Powers Resolutions that go nowhere.
Regarding the need to consult Congress, I would recommend you read this important article from the National Constitution Centre. While the intent was clear that Congress should be consulted, the truth is:
Since 1973, most presidents have ignored parts or all of the War Powers Resolution. According to the Congressional Research Service, “presidents have taken a broader view of the Commander in Chief power to use military force abroad. They have variously asserted ‘sources of authority’ … [and] other statutes that do not specifically cite the WPR. Additionally, they have relied on the Commander in Chief power itself and the president's foreign affairs authority under Article II of the Constitution.”
So you can forget about whether the wannabe king will seek the permission of Congress. After all, he’s consulted them on little else and just ignored the judiciary. The reality is that the village arsonist is in your house with a can of gasoline and a box of matches. It’s not a matter of if he will burn down your home; it’s a matter of when. Assets are being rapidly deployed to the region, but I suspect there are already sufficient assets in place for a go order.
Netanyahu has been seeking an opportunity to eliminate the threat of Iran for decades. He’s attempted time and time again to manipulate US presidents into attacking Iran to no avail. Still, he knew that once Trump got re-elected in November, there was a good chance he could make it happen at the expense of US taxpayers, and it seems he was right. Netanyahu’s assertions that Iran is close to having a nuclear weapon are nothing new; it’s been his favourite bedtime story for decades.
The truth is Israel is one of five countries — joining India, Pakistan, North Korea and South Sudan — that is not a signatory to the U.N. Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. If it signed the treaty, it would be forced to give up its nuclear weapons, so that’s never going to happen. As reported by Lara Jakes in a New York Times Piece dated 17th June:
“From an official diplomatic posture perspective, the Israelis will not confirm or deny” their nuclear arsenal, said Alexander K. Bollfrass, a nuclear security expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
Instead, Israel has said it will not be the first country to “introduce” nuclear weapons to the Middle East. That deliberately vague wording amounts to what Mr. Bollfrass called an “obfuscation over what is clearly an established nuclear weapons program.”
As ever with Israel, they do what they want with impunity. AIPAC exerts so much control in Washington that any opposition is futile. Be in no doubt the whole Middle East is undergoing changes which will see Israel assert even more power as it attempts to reshape the region, and US taxpayers will be footing the bill. I can’t believe that Trump didn’t realise he was being played when Netanyahu acted before Trump could strike a deal with Iran; even a fool could see that move coming; he didn’t want a deal any more than he wants a two-state solution with Palestinians. This is a setup; Israel is teeing up Trump to score the winning goal to take the credit for delivering the final blow. Chamin Levinson from Haaretz reported on 17th June:
An Israeli source described the situation as: "We are cooking everything up for the U.S. Like in soccer, we broke through the opponent's defense, we passed all their players, and now we have given them a pass into the box where they are alone in front of the goalkeeper."
Netanyahu's goal is to scorch Iran and hope that Trump's megalomania and desire to leave a legacy will cause him to join in the destruction of Iran's nuclear sites, and perhaps the entire regime, and then enter the history books as the man who freed the world from the Iranian nuclear threat.
Netanyahu knows Trump will not be able to resist scoring the winning goal and claiming the glory. Be in no doubt, Netanyahu wants regime change, and he hopes Trump will simply fall into line. To understand the goals of Netanyahu and his acolytes, you need to know that they are deep-down religious zealots who believe that they have a divine right to control the entire region and dominate anyone who might represent a challenge.
Gaza is a prime example of their geopolitical power and the influence they hold over key Western powers. No other country on earth would be allowed to do what the Israeli government has done in Gaza, NOBODY. They commit war crimes with impunity and, when challenged, hide behind what has now become a compliant enabler in The United States. Despite millions around the world taking to the streets to object to their murderous rampage, governments have done NOTHING to stop them; despite indictments brought by the International Criminal Court. Israel have used a ‘self-defence’ argument to justify acts of wanton barbarity designed to break the spirit of the Palestinian people.
How many times have we heard the claims that Hamas use civilians as human shields in their excuses for the killing of innocent civilians and claims that Hamas controls centres beneath hospitals? Well, let’s turn those claims on their head. In another report in Haaretz by B. Michael on Jun 3, 2021, he states:
Israeli military headquarters hides behind the civilian residents of central Tel Aviv and the patients at Ichilov Hospital just 450 meters from the office of the commander in chief. Sheba Medical Center outside Tel Aviv protects the Tel Hashomer military base. The navy base in Haifa hides in the shadow of the Rambam medical center. Even “our nuclear family” hides among the resolute and pastoral rural population.
And Israel's leaders? The prime minister hides behind the civilian residents of Jerusalem’s Talbieh neighborhood, and his designated successor does the same in Ra'anana. The defense minister hides in Rosh Ha'ayin, and the military chief on Moshav Adi. His deputy is surrounded by a wall in the form of the civilians of Hod Hasharon. And so on; they're all sheltering behind civilians, as if they were Hamasniks.
Hardly the actions of the ‘most moral army in the world’ as they often claim.
While I would never defend the Iranian regime for their behaviour when it comes to acts of aggression, supporting terrorism, using proxies to attack Western interests, or the way they treat their own citizens, Let’s be very clear: Iran did not attack Israel in the current conflict, Israel made a preemptive strike using the false premise of ‘self-defense’ to prevent the imminent threat from a country it claims were very close to obtaining a nuclear weapon. This is not the assessment by the US intelligence community as expressed in testimony this March when Tulsi Gabbard stated for the record under oath in hearings. She said that the intelligence community:
“continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and supreme leader Khomeini has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003”
It would appear that recent reporting indicates there to have been no change in the threat assessment. Still, once again, Trump chose to ignore the evaluation of his own intelligence community, instead choosing to believe the word of an indicted war criminal. Trump can see that from an optics point of view; he looks weak unless he takes a drink from the poison chalice being offered to him by master manipulator Netanyahu. As a result, the American people are about to become passengers in a conflict just because Trump feels he has to save face.
My thoughts are that Trump will dive in, but I think it will be limited in scope to obliterating all nuclear sites and weapons production sites. If he kills the supreme leader, that will just be seen as a bonus, then he’ll step away and leave it to Israel to police with US weapons support. The problem is, even the best-made plans don’t always pan out the way you expect them to, and there appears to be no exit plan given the fact that Netanyahu jumped the gun.
The real danger, aside from possible radiation leaks and all the associated dangers surrounding attacks on a nuclear facility, is acts of terrorism that will likely occur as a result. History tells us that once we move into the space of suicide bombers, things can go downhill very fast. This type of threat is complicated to mitigate because someone whose sole intent is to die for their cause are notoriously difficult to stop. Once there has been one attack, the psychological effects are devastating as everyone is then in a state of perpetual fear. You can have the greatest army on earth, but they are no match for a handful of suicide bombers in densely populated spaces.
Even putting terrorism aside for a moment, Iran is proving even now, that it can inflict severe damage on Israeli cities. There is a military assessment currently underway that suggests Iran is utilising its older missile inventory to overwhelm the Iron Dome system, thereby forcing the increased use of interceptor missiles —a tactic designed to deplete these stocks before Iran deploys its more sophisticated missiles. It seems plausible to me, but I’m sure the Israeli Air Force is hunting down missile launchers to diminish the threat.
Netanyahu is rolling the dice not just with Israel’s security but with the security of Western allies who support Israel. If the US goes to war with Iran, anyone who thinks there will not be serious consequences is deluding themself. This will extend far beyond security to economic instability at a time when the global economy can ill afford it. Actions have consequences, and unfortunately, Trump has never suffered consequences for anything he’s done throughout his life, so they don’t even enter his thinking. Add to that, he’s desperately in search of a win, but rest assured, the safety of Americans is not foremost in his mind.
I’ll conclude by saying that if you believe that going to war with Iraq in this moment of global peril is the right thing to do, ask yourself why. If your answer is because Iran is close to having a nuclear weapon, then you are not as smart as I thought you were. It’s just another ‘weapons of mass destruction’ fairytale. Does the threat require attention? Absolutely, it does, but in my opinion, using military force is not the way to do it. A negotiated settlement is the only sensible way forward. I would also ask how you feel about the leader of a nation of nine and a half million people, leading the leader of 350 million with a political bull ring through his nose into a conflict that could lead to American boots on the ground in Iran?
I believe your assessment of the situation is quite accurate, especially regarding trump looking for a “win” after his dismal parade and his performance at the G-7 conference. The Isralies comparing it to a soccer match and setting him up is quite point on! This was a good read, thanks.
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