When imperial ambition becomes dangerous reality

Let the plan to suspend the midterm elections begin.

Let me preface this piece by saying it will take a while for the fog to clear after Trump’s invasion and occupation of Venezuela. There are so many angles to examine in this reckless act that it’s difficult to know where to begin. If ever there were an unveiling of geopolitical 4D chess, this is it. Any pretence that the rules-based order exists was shattered when Trump made it clear that he intends to redefine global power in the 21st century. I would advise every American not to put this down to another ‘It’s just what Trump does’ moment, because that would be a grave error.

I’ll open by stating there is no question that Nicolás Maduro is a thug who crashed the Venezuelan economy and caused millions to flee the country. If you want to understand how he rose to power, take a look at this piece by Jason Burke in the Guardian from yesterday. He notes :

Maduro’s rule shattered Venezuela’s economy, leading millions of his countrymen and women to flee overseas to escape an incompetent, corrupt, repressive and often brutal government.

He was, of course, the successor to Hugo Chavez, the populist socialist leader known for his campaign to redistribute wealth to benefit the working class. He became a global poster boy for many left-wing figures in Western democracies who had long studied socialist theory, which now had a real-world populist example in Venezuela. They sought to advance the argument that socialism works by citing Chavez as an example. BIG MISTAKE, and those on the far left in the US today should take note too.

What they never accounted for was human nature and our weakness for self-enrichment that has infected governments and leaders since time began. It’s the same disease that saw Trump seize Venezuela on Saturday. Anyone can gain popularity by giving away money. Why do you think Trump is forever promising dividends that never arrive? In Chávez’s case, the money he was ‘redistributing’ was revenue generated by Western corporate entities' investments in oil extraction.

It is, of course, essential to understand how Western corporate interests sought opportunities to exploit Venezuela's poverty amidst untapped oil wealth. In 1910 and the decade that followed, vast oil reserves were discovered beneath Lake Maracaibo in Venezuela’s eastern plains. This resulted in a surge of foreign investment, led by U.S. and European companies. As a result, Chevron, Shell, and Exxon dominated Venezuela’s oil sector, as they entered into agreements with a succession of dictators who ruled the country. Generous concessions were granted to these large corporate entities in return for royalties and taxes. There is always a price for dancing with the Devil. The result? By the 1940s, Venezuela became the world’s largest oil exporter.

Derricks in the Maracaibo oil fields of Venezuela in the early 20th century - Getty Images

Oil revenues had long since surpassed agricultural revenues as Venezuela’s primary economic driver. Time and time again, we see the same pattern: poor countries have billions in wealth locked within their borders that’s worthless unless they can finance its extraction. They can’t do it without funding from wealthy external investors who charge a premium to unlock it. However, this is where it becomes interesting: the host country begins to realise that once oil is pumping at scale, it gains greater leverage to demand a larger share of the pie.

When Isaías Medina Angarita became president in 1941, as part of his strategy for gradual democratisation and liberalisation of Venezuela, he impressively initiated reforms of the oil sector without alienating corporate interests or the global powers they represented. As a result, the Venezuelan government secured a larger share of the oil revenues. During the Second World War, he aligned Venezuela with the Allied war effort, but in 1945, he was overthrown in a coup that Washington did not oppose.

In the context of greed, there are no morals: Venezuela then experienced a series of coups that allowed foreign oil companies to continue their operations in exchange for the usual bribes and kickbacks. For the oil companies, it simply became the price of doing business. Western nations needed to maintain oil flows to sustain the stability of their economies. Military rule ended in 1958, bringing significant political stability to the country. This then evolved into an appetite for nationalising Venezuelan oil, and under President Carlos Andrés Pérez’s economic initiative, called "La Gran Venezuela", the oil industry was nationalised on January 1, 1976, with the creation of Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA).

Surprisingly, it was regarded as a technocratic success because a Western management team led the transition. Investment continued to flow, and close ties to international markets remained. Western governments had adapted to the evolution of Venezuelan oil production, which was by this time serving the interests of both parties. Over the next two decades, PDSVA became a globally respected oil company as it expanded its refining capacity abroad, to include the US.

Two centrist parties dominated Venezuelan politics during the 1980s and 90s. In the early 1980s, oil prices began to fall, and in 1986, prices collapsed due to an oil glut. By this time, Venezuela had predominantly become a petro-economy, and the collapse in oil prices began to fracture the economy as debt soared and economic mismanagement had a detrimental impact on the population. This provided a backdrop for political revolution. I dare say, the financial mismanagement also involved a heaping spoonful of corruption. The revolution led by Hugo Chavez seized the means of production and expelled the oil companies.

I want to pause the story here to draw your attention to a few important points, not least of which is the claim by Trump that Venezuela has stolen US oil. Not surprisingly, this is just another lie from the Liar in Chief. International law is unambiguous on the matter. Any resources within Venezuela’s sovereign territory are its own, and the UN Charter reinforces this. The nationalisation of its oil industry in 1976 was a lawful exercise of sovereign power, similar to that exercised by Mexico, Norway, and Saudi Arabia. The US has no sovereign claim.

American companies affected by the nationalisation filed claims against the expropriation process in 2014. A World Bank arbitration tribunal ordered Venezuela to pay Exxon Mobil $1.6bn. Legal proceedings remain ongoing. In short, Trump’s claim, subsequently repeated by Stephen Miller, is utter nonsense, and they both know this to be the case. This is all about a justification narrative for an illegal invasion and seizure of oil, which they know will be challenged in court, but they don’t care.

Nobody would argue that Maduro is NOT the legitimate president of Venezuela, and neither will they shed a tear at his removal, but that is where it ends. Trump’s move was a geopolitical initiative, introducing his so-called ‘Donroe doctrine’ aimed at achieving several objectives. As a backdrop, I would strongly advise you to read the second part of my piece from December 16, in which I discuss how a company called Vulcan Elements is part of a funding pipeline that is using a $620 million loan from the Pentagon to divert profits from rare earth minerals into the Trump family business network of accounts.

This is not about the liberation of the Venezuelan people or the promotion of democracy; it is about one thing, and one thing alone: MONEY. More importantly, I believe it’s about Trump using U.S. military power to create an array of opportunities for him to skim off billions of dollars for personal gain. Repeatedly, we see Witkoff and Kushner appearing when any mention of the word ‘reconstruction’ appears. Meanwhile, Don Jr. is seeking to profit from rare-earth processing; the side deals are never-ending. This entire presidency is built on creating a permissive environment for corruption, using taxpayer money and military power for personal profit. Everything is about Trump taking a ‘license fee’, just like for Trump steaks and mineral water, not to mention watches and his struggling golden phone.

I’m shocked Trump has not called his illegal invasion a ‘special military operation’, which he has, of course, attempted to do by labelling it a law enforcement operation. This is NOT a Trump plan; this is a carefully crafted implementation of a plan cooked up by Stephen Miller, Russell Vought, and the cabal who are on a crusade for imperial dominance. Trump is just their useful idiot, happy to take a hidden fee from all the spoils of American conquest. Be in no doubt that’s where this is going, and it’s not stopping at Venezuela, no more than Putin will stop at Ukraine. If I were to guess, I suspect Cuba is next.

The aim is to give notice to China and Russia that they would be much better off aligning themselves with the US, because Trump is prepared to march into any country in which they may think they can disrupt American ambition. It’s a flex that I believe is both stupid and short-sighted. It will not have escaped your attention what he said when asked about Venezuelan oil exports to China. He said he’ll be happy to sell it to them. Under international law, that would be theft, given that the oil belongs to the Venezuelan people, regardless of what he might think.

This whole escapade is a legal minefield which will soon begin unravelling. Trump’s claims of his invasion being a ‘law enforcement operation’ hold no water because, on that basis, the threat has been removed. On July 28, 2024, the Venezuelan people overwhelmingly elected Edmundo González president. To provide some context, opposition leader María Corina Machado, who won the Nobel Peace Prize, named González her successor in January 2024 after Maduro’s government barred her from running in the General election.

What is important to understand here is that not only did González win, but the opposition also had documentary evidence of his victory. Tiago Rogero wrote a remarkable piece for The Guardian on August 10th 2024, about what happened, which I can’t recommend highly enough. In it, Tiago noted:

Venezuela’s government-controlled electoral council soon claimed victory for Nicolás Maduro, the authoritarian political heir of Hugo Chávez, who it said had won with 51.21% of votes, compared with 44.2% for his rival Edmundo González.

But within 48 hours of the election the opposition coalition announced that their candidate had won – and they had the evidence to prove it.

Thanks to a plan months in the making, opposition activists had succeeded in gathering more than 83% of the voting tallies: long printouts resembling till receipts, which showed that Maduro had in fact won just 30% of the vote, compared with 67% for González.

This is what an absolute landslide looks like, and the US, along with many of its allies, recognised the victory of González, who is now in exile in Spain after fleeing Venezuela in September 2024 for fear of his safety. The wider international community believes that María Corina Machado should now be installed as interim president to reflect the injustice of the 2024 election, which her party won with a massive proven majority, until new elections can be held. Trump’s response?:

"I think it would be very tough for her to be the leader. She doesn't have the support within or the respect within the country. She's a very nice woman, but she doesn't have the respect."

Translation: “That bitch won the Nobel Prize that should have been mine. No way is she going to be in charge.”

Instead, Trump has decided that Delcy Rodriguez, Maduro’s second in command, should now be the acting president. For context, as noted by the New York Times:

She is the daughter of a Marxist guerrilla who won fame for kidnapping an American businessman. She was educated partly in France, where she specialised in labour law.

In a telling statement, Trump said all you need to hear: “She’s willing to do what we think is necessary to make Venezuela great again.” It could be Putin speaking. Translation: “She’ll do as she’s told,” something María Machado can’t be relied upon to do.

This is a level of imperial escalation that has put the world, including Denmark, on notice. It’s deliberate and part of a carefully crafted plan. I believe the invasion itself was essentially a performative event in terms of the military dominance display; everything about it screams inside job on the part of the Venezuelan government. Forty-five minutes to eliminate air and ground defences to the point where lumbering Chinook helicopters can deliver special forces without any meaningful engagement is frankly unbelievable. I’m not suggesting that the military did not execute the plan perfectly, certainly credit is due to the advance team on the ground, who provided the intelligence for the operation.

Be in absolutely no doubt, the occupation of Venezuela is going to be a massive military challenge. Venezuela is regarded as one of the most dangerous countries in the world, as noted by Global Guardian :

“Venezuela is not just risky by the standards of Latin America – it has one of the highest rates of violent crime, corruption , and unrest in the world. The capital city of Caracas is a focal point for violent demonstrations, organized crime, robbery, kidnapping, and homicide.”

This isn’t about a quick assault, and it’s all over. This has the potential to be Somalia and then some. If you are the parent, sibling or a serving member of the military, you should be deeply concerned about this exercise to fill the Trump family bank accounts. If Trump thinks he can ‘run Venezuela’ on a wing and a prayer and a few thousand bullets, he has made the biggest miscalculation of his life. And for what?

Are US oil companies going to spend money at a time when they aren’t even prepared to spend it on drilling in the US? More importantly, are they prepared to send contractors into one of the most lawless countries on earth to update oil drilling infrastructure that hasn’t been adequately maintained for half a century? Venezuela might be sitting on the largest crude oil reserves in the world, but it’s not worth a dime if it can’t be safely extracted without risking death at the hands of lawless gangs specialising in kidnap and extortion (oh Lord, did I just say that?)

Rest assured, Russia and China will now start funding rebel elements in the country to disrupt anything Trump attempts to do. In my mind, Trump’s simply looking for an excuse to defer the midterm elections. These are perilous times, and I honestly do fear that this is just the beginning of a planned year of ultra-expensive chaos, assuming the economy doesn’t crash. If Congress does not put a stop to this madness, lots of young men and women may well lose their lives in the service of a lunatic intoxicated with power, enabled by a cabinet and Republicans in Congress that are failing in their number one responsibility: to protect the American people.

The number of troops he’s going to need to deploy to protect the oil will, I hope, never be sanctioned by Congress. I can only hope he’s going to face massive backlash for what he cannot deny was an illegal act of war on a sovereign nation. The global implications of this act of stupidity, I fear, will be far-reaching and further endanger US national security. Serving to damage its international reputation. It’s a hell of a price to pay to distract from a failing economy and the Epstein files.

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