This is not governance by consent, it's rule by intimidation

Trump, like all dictators, is living in a state of paranoia. He is seeing increasing resistance to his iron-fist immigration policy. He is a control freak, losing control.

With so much uncertainty on multiple fronts, it isn't easy to assess anything accurately right now. Trump is living on the edge as the impact of trade policy begins to feed through to consumer prices. As I mentioned earlier, it’s challenging to gauge genuine consumer sentiment until people start to feel the real impact. Currently, low oil prices (which, incidentally, have nothing to do with Trump) are prevailing, allowing Americans to enjoy the benefits of lower gas prices.

It’s becoming increasingly clear to me that Trump is a president living on the edge. It is always the case that if your whole presidency is built on a foundation of lies, eventually the truth will come knocking at your door. Once a lie is told, you have two choices: come clean and face the consequences or dig a deeper hole to perpetuate the lie. He has chosen the latter, and that never ends well.

He must be aware by now that there is no fixing this without looking the complete fool he is. He’s got nothing to lose, given that he’s accepted as an incompetent narcissistic imbecile; sadly, he’s incapable of accepting the truth, so he’s forced to dig a deeper hole each day. The consequences of his actions merely serve to hurt more American families and small businesses.

I’ve spent years now trying to understand the mentality of the Republican Party and their obsession with Immigration. Let me begin by saying I do not condone illegal immigration, but what I find so disingenuous is a country that has failed the immigrant community for decades, attempting to seize the moral high ground. Immigration has long proved to be a key weapon in the election armoury of the Republican Party. Immigrants have been persistently used as pawns in a cruel game of political warfare. They have been the human shields of party politics, and I find that abhorrent. As stated, I don’t doubt that uncontrolled immigration is not what any country wants. However, the truth is that this is nothing new, and the immigration issue, despite its alleged importance, has escaped any meaningful comprehensive legislation since the presidency of Ronald Reagan.

Politicians have become adept over the years at creating a boogeyman to blame for the government's failings. In America, immigrants have become victims of their human instinct to provide a better life for their families. Historically, they have come to America for a variety of reasons, whether it was the Irish escaping the potato famine between 1845 and 1852, Afghans fleeing the Taliban or Ukrainians fleeing Russian aggression, the story is the same. Faced with danger, it is a natural reaction to flee. You and I would do it in the blink of an eye if the lives of our family were in danger.

The reality is that, whether old grey men want to admit it or not, population displacement almost always arises from the imperial ambitions of great Western powers. Yet, we act as if that has nothing to do with us. People come to America because the US has been so successful at selling the American dream, another illusion. Actions have always had consequences, and immigration is born out of the failure by Western governments to accept responsibility for the harm they have caused, in often failed attempts to impose their worldview on cultures in which it simply has no place.

Whether we like it or not, America has a reputation for arrogance and greed. For almost a century it has imposed its will on the world and the consequences have been socially devastating for countries it has metaphorically raped and pillaged. So the holier-than-thou attitude that often infects the debate on immigration is frankly ludicrous. America is not alone in this. At its peak, the British Empire controlled 25% of the world’s land mass. Nobody raped and pilliaged better than the British, but as the world evolves empires come and go.

The disturbing thing about Trump and his racist obsession with immigration is that it makes no economic sense. He is fighting a civil war, which is destined to damage the US economy. Approximately 4% of the US workforce is made up of undocumented immigrants. We can argue all day about the reasons why this is the case. Still, the reality is that there is never a shortage of American businesses that are addicted to cheap domestic labour to do jobs American people refuse to do. Nobody has been more guilty of that than Trump at his hotels and golf courses. It’s preposterous to see ICE agents racing across crop fields to arrest and deport workers who are instrumental in putting food on the tables of American families. It makes no economic sense whatsoever; it’s simply ideology over economic good stewardship.

The only natural conclusion one can come to is that Trump is waging war on civilians in what has now become a religious crusade; the result of which can only be more expensive food and other consumer products that these undocumented workers produce. American business is addicted to cheap domestic labour. Nothing about it is anything but political. Whenever you adopt a policy, the first step should be to conduct an impact assessment.

The government is wasting billions, which I fear will soon turn into trillions, on implementing a mass deportation policy that will harm America. The only upside appears to be to make racists feel good; this is when you know madness is taking hold. I’m not a policy guru, but consider this:

• Take a one-year initial sabbatical from immigration. Given that the border is now effectively closed to those wanting to immigrate to America, that should not pose a problem, given that Trump himself is saying the border is closed.

• Set up a Department for Priority Immigration Needs to address skill set deficiencies that require fast-tracked immigrant workers.

• Offer a pathway to citizenship for all undocumented workers currently residing in the US. This would involve registering with the government and would incur a fee of, say, $1,000 (I’m just throwing this number out there as a minimum). If they do not have $1,000, then they pay whatever they can, and the rest becomes a debt to the government, which is deducted from their earnings in the same way as payroll taxes. This is not a real cost to the government, but would generate an identifiable revenue stream.

• As part of their registration, they would have to sign an enforceable legal document, which I would call a ‘Contract of Trust’, making them visible in the economy and setting them on the road to becoming citizens over a specified period. I would also insist that, as part of the process, they submit to the collection of biometric data for future identification purposes. If that period were set for, say, 5 years, they could, as they progress and pay their taxes, gain incremental access to state benefits enjoyed by US citizens.

• I would set a break clause that states if an applicant fails to meet their obligations, they become eligible for deportation.

• The 5-year path can be viewed as a probationary period for citizenship, during which, upon completion of the period, the outstanding candidates can be granted full citizenship status. In contrast, others may have their probationary period extended to improve their suitability. The bottom line is, there is always an incentive to work to improve and prove your worth to the society in which you wish to play a part.

• For those failing to meet the required standard, they then become immediately eligible for deportation within 30 days.

• During the period of probation, if you are convicted of a felony, then you are deported and blocked from entering the US for a specified period, depending on the severity of the crime. If you commit a serious crime, you are forced to serve your sentence in the US and are then deported on release. During the period of incarceration, you must work to contribute to the cost of your imprisonment.

• When it comes to tracking down current undocumented immigrants who have been convicted of a crime, excluding entering the country in violation of the law, they should be deported in line with current policy.

I understand this is an over-simplified basic outline that would need refining, but that is the job of legislators. The key point is that there needs to be a straightforward progression path to bring millions of hardworking immigrants into the light and recognise their contribution. They should not be forced into the shadows, but allowed to be out and proud, contributing to a more prosperous America. We can discuss at length the fact that this would reward those who broke the law to enter the country. I do understand this is a concern. However, pragmatism should be the order of the day, because the cost of the current folly is unsustainable. The harsh reality is that Trump’s mass deportation plan is not economically viable. Not to mention that removing 4% of the workforce is fiscally irresponsible. It’s time for economic sense to prevail over dogma; only then can America move forward.

Let’s look at the data. A report from Pew Research, updated in September 2024, states:

The U.S. foreign-born population reached a record 47.8 million in 2023, an increase of 1.6 million from the previous year. This is the largest annual increase in more than 20 years, since 2000.

In 1970, the number of immigrants living in the U.S. was about a fifth of what it is today. Growth of this population accelerated after Congress made changes to U.S. immigration laws in 1965.

Immigrants today account for 14.3% of the U.S. population, a roughly threefold increase from 4.7% in 1970. The immigrant share of the population today is the highest since 1910 but remains below the record 14.8% in 1890.

Please feel free to review the complete research I've included here. I think you will find it helpful in the context of the immigration conversation. I am more than aware that immigration is a hot topic; it’s a symptom of a failure of government over decades on both sides of the aisle. Denying public services to people who pay their taxes, you might think, would be an affront to America’s bedrock belief in fairness. Just for clarification, as stated by IRS regulations:

Foreign workers who are illegal aliens (undocumented aliens) are subject to U.S. taxes in spite of their illegal status. U.S. employers or payers who hire illegal aliens (undocumented aliens) may be subject to various fines, penalties, and sanctions imposed by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

As reported by Reuters on February 26th:

Undocumented immigrants paid nearly $97 billion in federal, state and local taxes in 2022, according to a July 2024 report, opens new tab by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP), which used data on taxpayers with ITINs to estimate tax revenue.

The ITEP report said undocumented immigrants contributed $59.4 billion to the federal government, including payments for federal income tax and federal social insurance such as Social Security, Medicare and Unemployment Insurance.

An estimated 8.7 million of the 11 million immigrants in the U.S. illegally in 2022 were of prime working age, according to a 2024 U.S. Department of Homeland Security report, opens new tab.

I’ve included the above with all relevant reference points so you can follow them if you require any further clarification. The key point is that Republicans have spent years telling the lie that undocumented workers are ‘taking American jobs’ and draining the social welfare pot. It’s simply untrue. Immigration is and will continue to be the Republican political weapon of choice, and it is a key component of their current culture war. Given the situation in LA, I wanted to check the contribution made to the state economy by undocumented workers.

In a report by The California Budget & Policy Centre from October 2024, the key takeaway is :

California’s undocumented residents contribute nearly $8.5 billion in taxes, playing a crucial role in supporting public services while remaining excluded from essential programs.

It goes on to state:

California is home to a sizable population of immigrants — with and without legal status — who are students, teachers, artists, chefs, business owners, religious leaders, colleagues, neighbors, family members, and more. Undocumented Californians pay billions of dollars in taxes and play a vital role in stimulating California’s economy. They help keep businesses running, put food on tables, care for children and loved ones, enrich communities through art and music, and much more.

One contribution that is often overlooked or underestimated is the amount of taxes that individuals who are undocumented are paying into publicly-funded systems to support public services, even as they are excluded from benefiting from many of those same services.

To be very clear, undocumented immigrants are not the enemy of the people. Even given the limitations placed on them, the vast majority do their very best to play a role in society for the benefit of the broader communities in which they live. They are exploited and marginalised by the very people who now claim they should all be deported. Now, ask yourself, who are the criminals?

The problem for right-minded people who can see exactly what Trump is doing with his performative, made-for-TV events is that while Americans want to put a stop to illegal immigration, they can’t reconcile the cruelty Trump is raining down on immigrant communities, and this is evident in polling. The likes of Stephen Miller are simply making matters worse by insisting on unrealistic quotas of three thousand apprehensions per day. This will merely lead to wrongful detention, as we are already seeing.

The average cost of apprehension, detention, and deportation in 2022 was estimated to be in the region of $17,000, which translates to $51 million per day, based on Miller’s targets. It will come as no surprise to you that this money is being hoovered up by the owners of private detention facilities, who then make additional profit on those detained by putting them to work for a dollar a day. Where there is misery, there is profit. It would certainly be an interesting freedom of information request to obtain the current cost, because I suspect $17,000 would not even scratch the surface of the bloated invoices being issued by Trump’s donors for US taxpayers to pay. In any event, we’re talking about an annual bill of well over $58 billion. That’s before the cost of removing them from the workforce. Call me an old sceptic, but I can’t help but think that this is just another corporate gravy train, which no doubt a number of Republican legislators have bought stock in.

In a special report by the American Immigration Council dated October 2nd 2024, they asked the question:

‘Given that in the modern immigration enforcement era the United States has never deported more than half a million immigrants per year—and many of those have been migrants apprehended trying to enter the U.S., not just those already living here—any mass deportation proposal raises obvious questions: how, exactly, would the United States possibly carry out the largest law enforcement operation in world history? And at what cost?’

The report concludes that:

‘We estimate the ultimate cost of such a longer operation would average out to $88 billion annually, for a total cost of $967.9 billion over the course of more than a decade. This is a much higher sum than the one-time estimate, given the long-term costs of establishing and maintaining detention facilities and temporary camps to eventually be able to detain one million people at a time.’

You can see that their annual cost estimate is considerably higher than the $58 billion I mentioned above, so I think between us, we recognise it’s a very significant fiscal challenge. This is at a time when the US economy is on the edge of a cliff with no trade deals in the bag, higher bond yields, and investors fleeing the US Capital markets faster than the retraction of a TACO tariff.

While we are focusing on this, the Big Billionaire Welfare Act is escaping the full scrutiny it deserves. Here’s another example of the work paid subscribers to Truth Matters help to fund.

I would conclude today by simply saying he’s attempting to use a sledgehammer again to crack a nut, and that’s how we know it’s not about the policy, it’s about looking for a fight and testing the boundaries. It is pure political theatre, but on putting on this production, he is knowingly making the situation worse to distract from his abject trade failure. As for his party this weekend, I would suggest that Americans flood Washington just as they did in the March to Washington in the Civil Rights era to demonstrate dissent for the actions of his puppet government. I can tell you right now that it is his biggest fear. America needs to expose him for what he is, the Emperor with no clothes.