Following a weekend in which the US behaved like diplomatic buffoons, Donald Trump placed a cherry on his diplomatic poison cake by stating Ukraine had shown “zero gratitude” for US efforts to end the conflict. To say I’m speechless would be the understatement of the year. Maybe it’s like the ‘zero gratitude’ the bottom 90% of Americans have shown as victims of state-sponsored theft from tariffs, the doubling of ACA insurance premiums and the stealing of food from the children of low-income workers?
It appears the Russians drafted the plan that will be recorded in history as the best geopolitical poker bluff in modern times. It’s a nothing hand which fooled a diplomatic idiot of a president into attempting to sell capitulation to the victim of the territorial rape of his country. I find it disturbing that this is the best possible spin that can be placed on the situation, because the alternative is that a long-time US adversary is blackmailing the President of the United States.
The only hand Putin has to play is mutually assured destruction, as he once again suggests the possibility of nuclear conflict if the world fails to give him what he demands. He has no other cards to play. Military experts around the world assess that it will take Russia 4 years and cost a further 2 million casualties to gain the territory Trump is insisting Ukraine concede. It makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. It’s like a 21st-century Black Knight Monty Python sketch, and Russia is NOT King Arthur.
Right now, Putin’s economy is hanging by a thread. If you are looking for evidence, my research indicates that any Ukrainian territory ceded to Russia is based on his threat to go nuclear On every economic, military and strategic front, RUSSIA IS NOT WINNING THE WAR, and European leaders would do well to recognise that.
Suppose Putin fires a tactical battlefield low-yield nuclear missile at Ukraine? One would expect NATO to respond with overwhelming force. This would mean that any further expansionist hopes Putin has would evaporate instantly. Of course, in this upside down world, given the fear everyone seems to have of Putin, there is no guarantee he would not get away with such action, and that is what these games are all about for him.
The critical point is that the Russian army has been unable to defeat the Ukrainian army after almost four years of trying. Its chances against NATO are ZERO, and that’s why I believe it’s time to call his bluff. ANY concessions to Putin are, in his mind, a sign of weakness that emboldens him. He has calculated that the US will not meet its Article 5 obligations in Europe. Trump has shown, time and again, his reluctance to get involved in any European conflict.
So, the question is, in the event of a battlefield nuclear strike on Ukraine or another US ally, will Trump step up or withdraw from the European theatre of war. Should he withdraw, I believe it would be political suicide for him at home. When it comes to Russia, the Republican caucus has long been hawkish. He would create a domestic political fracture that he would never recover from. The sole question on the table is whether Ukraine worth it? Putin is rolling the dice on the answer being no.
He senses there is no political appetite for war in Europe, despite all the strong rhetoric. The problem with a zero public sentiment level for conflict is that the same public will be outraged if attacks do occur in their backyard. Am I advocating for war? I am not, but what is essential is that Europe is prepared if the unthinkable happens. The classic human reaction is ‘I don’t live in Ukraine, so why should I care?’ In the case of the US, the conflict is an ocean away, so there is even less reason to care.
The critical factor is whether the world should encourage further Russian expansionism. The clear answer to that is no; so the question is, do we care enough to stop it? At a time where political leaders think no further than the next election, it’s not easy to formulate a strategic, coordinated response to long term Russian aggression. What happens next is crucial to the security of NATO allies who border Russia. The response to this Russian-authored ultimatum will shape the world order for decades to come. It is a historic inflexion point in which the unthinkable has occured. The US now represents a clear and present danger to the security of Europe for the first time in history. Pause to think about that for a moment.
We have a situation where a US president has become complicit in the illegal actions of an indicted war criminal. Much more than that, he is colluding with said alleged war criminal to carve up Ukrainian territory for financial gain in return for which the victim received nothing but retained sovereignty and ‘security assurances’. These being the exact words used in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum when Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal in return for the self same assurances. Words that meant NOTHING in 2014 when Russia invaded Crimea as Western allies sat on their hands and reneged on the agreement. Do you think for one minute that Russia would have invaded a neighbour armed with nuclear weapons? I think not. So Ukraine has, and is being shafted left and right by Western allies in their critical hour of need.
What this situation has brought to light is however very interesting. We should not underestimate JD Vance’s involvement in this diplomatic shit show. He stated on X:
“Every criticism of the peace framework the administration is working on either misunderstands the framework or misstates some critical reality on the ground,”
The intent here is to suggest that on the ground, the Ukrainian Military is losing the war. This is simply untrue. Has Russia made incremental gains? Yes, it has by simply throwing more conscripts into the meat grinder. If you want to claim that as a victory, be my guest, but as already stated, it is estimated that it will take them four years and the loss of a further 2 million soldiers to take the ground held by Ukraine that Trump wants to hand to Putin by the end of the week. I thought Trump was a master in the art of the deal?
What concerns me even more is that these negotiations, sorry, this collusion, appear to have been going on without Trump having any real knowledge of the details until they were leaked and he was made to look like an idiot. I ask myself, who has anything to gain by Trump being made to look an incompetent fool? I believe there are lots of hidden moving parts in this diplomatic catastrophe, and the actual picture remains very opaque.
Returning to the facts:
Current sanctions have driven Russian oil prices down to their lowest since 2023.
Because Saudi Arabia is currently discounting oil, Russia is being forced to sell oil at $38 per barrel, which is roughly $23 under the current Brent Crude price of around $60.
The Russian Central Bank is facing a potential 10 trillion ruble ($120 billion) risk on its balance sheet.
As a result, the Central Bank is selling off physical gold to mitigate the risk.
Under normal circumstances, the attacks by Ukraine on Russian oil refineries would make Russian oil more expensive. However, because the oil market anticipated the problem, oil is being pumped to fill the gap, so the Russian oil price, far from rising, is being depressed.
The Russian public is facing both gas and food shortages as the government is forced to divert resources to fight the war.
The bottom line is that the Russian economy is so close to the edge that if things continue as they are, it will not be able to fund the war or pay its own government workers. This is a country that is being forced to rely on North Korean troops to throw into the meat grinder to advance just a few kilometres. All while Ukraine are destroying Russian oil infrastructure with their own long-range missiles daily. It would be geopolitical suicide for Ukraine to accept this peace deal. I cannot believe that Trump’s intelligence analysts are not all over this, which makes it all the more worrisome. Maybe he sacked them when they told him what he didn’t want to hear?
Putin has rolled the dice on the assumption that Trump will play along. Europe needs to step in and put a halt to this madness because if it doesn’t, it will be forced to defend head-on, whichever small NATO member state Putin subsequently attacks to test their resolve further.
Is Putin blackmailing Trump? Well, Jeffrey Epstein was in contact with Russians, so I would say yes.