The fuse is burning, and far too many Americans are oblivious to the impending explosion

As Trump paints an image of budget surplus rainbows and unicorns, the pressure on the dam wall is rising as leaks begin to appear.

This week has seen the first trickle of water from hairline cracks in the dam wall of the MAGA agenda reservoir. Monthly inflation ticked up to 2.7% from 2.4% which is precisely why Jerome Powell is not caving to demands from Trump to lower interest rates. While the stock market is largely ignoring Trump’s tariff games, their impact is now beginning to show up in consumer prices.

It is fair to say that the American public struggles to grasp the intricacies of economic policy. Why should they, when they have more than enough to worry about? It is this ignorance of the dangers faced from Trump’s economic agenda that the administration relies on. Trump is still claiming at every opportunity that tariffs are a tax on foreign countries ripping off America, and it’s a narrative that is still sticking for at least his base, and those less engaged with politics.

We are now, however, approaching the point where consumer prices are beginning to rise, and people will start to question his narrative. His TACO approach to tariff implementation, aside from manipulating the market to benefit his friends, has created a false sense of security in the markets because they don’t believe a word he says. As a result, markets are not accurately reflecting the risk because they can’t evaluate it effectively due to the constant changes. The significant danger in this approach is that the markets could get caught off guard. If the wheels come off the bus as a result of a misguided move by Trump, there is a real danger of a swift and brutal market correction, and that could be disastrous for 401ks.

I cannot emphasise enough that Trump’s illusionary $27 billion budget surplus for June is not made up from tax receipts from countries exporting to America; It’s a $27 billion monthly TAX INCREASE for American import companies, which is slowly now being passed on to US consumers. It’s like you having a good night out on money stolen from your mom’s purse. Trump is stealing from you, then bragging he’s done it. The $27 billion that all of his talking heads are going on TV to brag about is cash stolen from American importers. In any other world, that would be described as state-sponsored THEFT. But in this new fantasy world, it’s a Trump economic win.

The Guardian reported yesterday:

The prices of appliances, furniture and toys, products typically manufactured outside the US, all rose. Food prices increased by 3%, with the price of beef rising by more than 2% over the month, coffee up 2.2% and citrus fruit prices rising 2.3%. While the price of eggs has been dropping over the last few months, a dozen eggs are still 27% more expensive than last year.

To be clear, these initial increases are well below the 9% rate Americans experienced as they emerged from the COVID crisis, but they are the first indications that front-loaded inventory is now depleted, so costs are beginning to be passed on to consumers. The report continues:

According to the Yale Budget Lab, Americans now face an average tariff rate of 18.7% – the highest rate since 1933. That includes 30% tariffs on China, a 50% tariff on steel and aluminium, 25% on auto parts and a universal 10% tariff on all imports.

Please note that this assessment does not include the new tariffs Trump threatened over the weekend, which will only exacerbate the problem further. This isn’t about a lack of transparency; this is about a concerted campaign of deception. Trump has responded to the inflation uptick, implying it’s because interest rates are too high. Nothing could be further from the truth. Jerome Powell is doing EXACTLY what he is employed to do: he’s protecting the economy, and I think Trump will find that the July numbers will make it even less likely rates will be reduced. Rest assured, the pressure on Powell will intensify in the coming months as the administration escalates its campaign against him. He is the guardrail they want removed.

I would advise Americans to track the State of US Tariffs Report from the Yale Budget Lab. Unfortunately, we now inhabit a world where Trump’s words are presented as truth. Now, call me old-fashioned, but treating the words of a man who told 30,573 lies during his first term and tells on average 40 lies every time he gives a speech might not be the best way of understanding what’s going on. I think the Guardian nailed it with their headline in a piece on 25th January 2025, ‘We’re watching mass delusion happen’: Trump’s return to White House brings cascade of lies.

It is hardly surprising that the world believes the US has a stupidity problem, because NOTHING about what Trump is doing makes any sense unless you are in the top 10% of extorters. It astounds me that tens of millions of Americans seem politically paralysed. Be in no doubt, protesting on the streets might make you feel good, but that’s sadly the limit of its impact. If you are looking for a fast cripping solution, economic disengagement is the ONLY ANSWER.

The reality is that low-wage Americans will be unable to participate, so I’m afraid it’s time for the middle class to step up and get the job done. There is no need to close your email account or internet service, nor is there a need to stop going to the hair salon, buying fast food, or eating out, because the last thing we need is to punish low-wage workers. The key is to hold off booking holidays or flights, as well as buying high-margin, high-ticket items or white goods. It’s about driving down consumer sentiment to send a sign to big business that someone needs to listen.

As I have stated before, the US is a consumer-driven economy. If there is a concerted effort to drive down consumer demand, then you have your point of leverage, and you can create an environment in which to negotiate. The key to this is sustained disengagement. Start with a month and measure the impact. There is no need to starve or endure too much pain; it’s about deferring luxury purchases and sitting on your money. The only inconvenience I would suggest is cancelling streaming services for a month to begin with. This will help provide a barometer of the level of participation as Netflix and other services start to squeal.

Don’t cancel Amazon Prime, because you should continue to purchase low-value goods to keep low-income warehouse workers and van drivers in employment. The same applies to fast food delivery orders. This is all about high-profit, large-ticket goods and services. They need your money to operate; without it, the economy is stagnant. It presents none of the safety issues that come with protesting on the streets, where Trump can simply deploy the military. The middle class can become the silent economic assassins of tyranny in America. This is your Alamo. It’s the ultimate modern-day act of patriotism, without having to endure too much pain.

An App could be created in no time to help coordinate efforts to target specific sectors of the economy. If the user base collaborates, it would enable participants to focus collectively on a company or sector. You can develop a strategy that focuses on boycotting companies that support the regime, while actively directing spending to companies that oppose it. This is not rocket science, my friends, it is leveraging the technology they are using to subjugate, in order to target the perpetrators. Your economic participation is infinitely more potent than any street protest or armed insurrection. You can use their own technology to target them with pinpoint economic accuracy.

You can’t avoid some impacts, like the impact on low-wage hotel workers as a result of not travelling, but don’t let good become the enemy of perfect. Remember, the key to this is coordination and sustained maximum pressure. It’s time to hold the government hostage as opposed to them holding the American people hostage. If this is implemented efficiently, it is the kind of action that can bring down a government. It’s just a matter of whether the middle class is prepared to take one for the team. Take it from me, if you are a middle-income American, you more than anyone, are going to need economic leverage, because it’s your living they are coming after with AI. You are the next generation of societal collateral damage.

US spending on white goods alone accounts for $63 billion. US auto sales were $4.8 billion in 2024, that’s before we talk about property purchases. I could go on. Nobody is suggesting that you don’t buy what you want; what is being proposed is that you sit on that money and use it as leverage to end the tyranny. As they always say, you can take a horse to water, but you can’t make it drink. I don’t want to continue hearing the constant drumbeat of ‘What can we do?’ There’s a hell of a lot you can do if you can bring yourself to accept short-term inconvenience to save the soul of your nation.

We have not discussed a general strike or people’s sick days. You don’t need them. You don’t need to disrupt your life that much at all; you are just deferring spending to create social leverage. There are no levers the government can use to punish you for sitting on your money. This action, however, will reduce the cost of goods as companies start to feel the pain of declining demand. This is where temptation knocks at the door, and you have to resist the urge to give in and buy a cheap TV; this is where I fear resolve could be truly tested.

Never forget, you have enormous power. It’s just a question of organising. The rest is basic economics. The economy is already under stress, and this just serves to strengthen your position. The question is, have you got the balls and the willingness to make it happen? If not, I fear that there may not be a way back. Even the damage done to date is catastrophic and may take years to recover from. Still, it pales into insignificance if you do nothing and allow Trump to continue his march to theocratic autocracy. The question is simple. What will you do?

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Kind Regards

Martin