The fall of an Empire that never was?

The advocates of Dark Enlightenment believe in a radical, anti-democratic political philosophy that rejects modern liberal democracy in favour of authoritarian corporate governance.

Trump is their Red Caesar, the man to deliver global corporate governance headquartered in the US. The problem is, the wheels are coming off the bus, and Trump was the corporate elite’s hope to deliver. However, it transpires he looks set to lead to the collapse of their wet dream. Now what?

It’s time, I think, for a ‘big picture’ Monday view of where we find ourselves in this moment of continued existential threat. It remains for me an absolute indictment of the DNC and Democratic leadership that a big win for Democrats in November comes down to a game of Russian Roulette according to the US mainstream media. In more recent times, the Polymarket seems to have been more accurate than polls, which is, in itself, a statement about the times we live in. Here’s what the markets show today, and rest assured, Trump and his acolytes are watching these numbers.

If we take a look at a sample of current polls, you can see what a more traditional picture looks like, like with the latest polls as featured in the New York Times

These are a sample from a much larger sample, as noted by polling researcher Caroline Soler in the NYT piece. As she notes:

Generic congressional ballot questions ask voters which party’s candidate they would support if the 2026 election were held that day as well as those that ask which party voters would prefer to control Congress after the election.

On its face, it would seem to be an easy win for Democrats, but the burning question is whether it will be a big enough win and send a message loud enough to make the regime sit up and take notice. There is no question that those pulling the strings saw a midterm overturning of the House as a real possibility; that’s exactly why they passed the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ and have accelerated the dismantling of democracy and the rule of law from the get-go.

I believe Republicans have been silent on Trump’s hostile takeover of the government because they believe the damage caused will be so severe by 2028 that the Democrats will inherit a socioeconomic wasteland if they win. A country so damaged, they will struggle to rescue it from the ashes, leaving the door open for another Republican victory when Democrats come up short.

There is no doubt in my mind that corporate America has got its foot firmly on the neck of the Democratic Party, and that is only going to make matters worse as they attempt to repair damage that will likely take a generation to remedy. There’s no way that a change of government will change the position of American allies in Europe and around the world. They will not make the mistake that they did with Biden, when he claimed to them, “America is back”. The truth is, they now understand that a repeat of the tyranny might be just one election cycle away, so there’s no way trust will be restored without a LOT of work, if ever.

It’s a harsh reality to come to terms with, but I’m afraid the US has become anaesthetised to Trump’s abject failure, as millions have been taken hostage inside his world of make-believe in which they are rendered incapable of believing he is transferring what little wealth they might have to the rich, while at the same time herding them into economic slavery. In what world would you pay $4 a gallon for gas for a global village idiot to engage in a war from which the only escape is to hand Iran back billions in frozen assets, while leaving them in charge of the Strait of Hormuz, having handed over none of their enriched Uranium? It makes absolutely no sense.

For any country to thrive, it has to preside over a strong economy. Trump’s entire 2024 campaign was about, as he put it, returning to the greatest economy that he created in his first term, when we know for a fact that he left behind an economic wasteland when he left office in 2020. His ability to control the political narrative has been his best friend up until relatively recently, but now he’s being forced to tell flat-out lies about EVERYTHING, because nothing of what he has said has come to pass. Yet still millions of Americans are shooting up on his FREE ‘political narcotics for all’ agenda.

Meanwhile, as is always the case, the truth comes knocking, telling a very different story. The whole premise behind his introducing an average 13% sales tax on every American, dressed up as tariffs, was to make America rich again. It wasn’t revenue from foreign countries; it was tax, for which, incidentally, he’s been forced to pay back $100 billion to the corporations that paid it, while passing the cost on to the public. Americans will not receive a dime, as those corporations benefit from a ’ double-dip’ windfall without being subjected to a windfall tax themselves.

To emphasise just how out of control the situation is, the US budget deficit soared to $432.3 billion in July, the highest since March 2021. The bottom line is that $100 billion in tariff refunds is weighing heavily on the government revenue stream. This will continue as a result of the Supreme Court’s ruling on tariffs. It’s forced Trump to make stuff up to replace the loss with new tariffs of between 10% and 12.5%. However, the critical point you MUST understand is that this is not revenue from goods, services or traditional revenue generation; it’s from a tax increase on Americans. In other words, this is your money creating the illusion of a trade-driven revenue stream, when it’s just another LIE.

Image - Brendan Smialowski/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Scott Bessent is now attempting to manage a budget deficit that looks set to exceed $2 trillion in the current fiscal year. This is forcing him to borrow in excess of $150 billion EVERY MONTH to keep the lights on in Trump’s fantasy world. The Treasury’s official quarterly borrowing estimates emphasise the massive scale of this ongoing fiscal insanity. July to September, it is estimated, the Treasury will borrow $739 billion and will end the year borrowing a further $628 billion. For context, this means the national debt is increasing by $12.6 billion per day and is now exceeding $40 trillion. Nobody can convince me that this is sustainable.

Even in a stable economy, this level of debt simply can’t be sustained, but in a fantasy economy where the whole economy relies on tech giants handing out circular finance like a game of musical chairs, it’s a problem. The music will eventually stop, and reality will hit home like an economics-shaped charge, as those in the middle and at the bottom are left to pick up the pieces of the carnage that will follow. Once your economy relies on extorting and bullying your allies, you know the writing is on the wall.

If it’s one thing the Iran war has proved, it’s just how the US Industrial Military Complex has become a slush fund for the apex predators at the top of the economic food chain. They’ve stolen so much money from the US taxpayer on the pretence that they were keeping Americans safe, when what they were actually doing was soaking the American taxpayer to the point where a single war with a third-rate nation has left the nation exposed to threats. How can you call yourself the most powerful military on earth when a single Asemetric response from an adversary YOU attacked teaches you a lesson that dropping bombs does not a victory make?

Source - Reuters

After just six months, the US finds itself diverting military assets from allies to the Middle East as sailors are jumping from aircraft carriers. All at a time when their Commander in Chief says that their 250-day continuous deployment is, and I quote, “Not nearly long enough”. I suppose if you are, in his words, “suckers and losers”, what can you expect from a five-time draft dodger?

This is not about a failed military; it’s about failed leadership from the top. Not only is it expensive, but it also signals to US adversaries that, when faced with an enemy willing to sacrifice and fight back, the US lacks the political will to go all in. That sends a massive message to both Russia and China, who now share a diminished view of the US threat.

The shareholder class, who have been soaking the American people in an abundant stock-fuelled fiscal pipeline, have, by their actions, rendered US military readiness questionable. They are like the building firms that skimped on materials to build homes that collapse at the first sign of an earthquake. Americans should not be surprised if Iran is waiting until closer to the election to carry out an atrocity on US soil. We know the US has already proved susceptible to threats on its water infrastructure from Iranian hackers. In addition, despite the denials, we know that the Iranians have caused massive damage to US bases and assets in the Middle East. This has led regional allies to look for alternative security solutions, just as the world is rewiring trade and arms procurement.

NOBODY trusts America anymore, and that damage is likely to take a generation to address, if it ever can. Trump bases his whole agenda on the fact that everyone fears America and its military. There’s no question that the US military has formidable capabilities, but in the wrong hands, it has proven ineffective against an enemy that does not engage in conventional conflict. It’s beyond essential that someone sends in a team of forensic accountants to audit the DOD, because until the scale of the corruption is uncovered, the lies will continue and the risk to national security will persist.

The trade deficit is the best indicator yet that the US is slowly becoming incapable of sustaining its dominance. While there is clearly no imminent threat today, the wheels are in motion to unravel the dollar and US geopolitical dominance. As with all such moves, I’m afraid hubris blinds the victim until it’s too late.

I’ll conclude today’s post by saying that the world is changing. Two years of Trump have taught it to plan to reduce its reliance on the US. China is carefully positioning itself as the adult in the room, capable of providing the world with a much more stable and reliable partner. As a result of Trump’s stupidity, they don’t even have to make the case; he’s making it for them.

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