Keep your head on a swivel

It is essential that Americans are able to multitask right now, because Trump is not just fighting a war with Iran, he's launching a domestic assault on elections.

Trump is the guy who decided to do a lap of honour, not realising there were two more laps to go in the race. He’s the guy who slips on the ice, gets up, then slips again in an attempt to make people believe he fell on his ass deliberately. Nobody, and I mean NOBODY except him, was stupid enough to believe Iran had capitulated. Simple common sense tells anyone with half a brain that Iran knows how to play this cat-and-mouse game; they’ve done it for decades.

To be clear, the regime is an abhorrent theocratic autocracy which has brutally suppressed its people since it came to power in 1979. It has been responsible for terrorising the world for as long as most can remember, and it is safe to say the world would be a better place if the regime fell and the will of the people was allowed to prevail. I unequivocally condemn them for the role they play in making the world a more dangerous place, but that does not lead me to underestimate them.

Trump’s hubris and arrogance, however, are an inherited disability when it comes to geopolitics. In his world, military power is king, and it’s all about ‘power through strength’. The problem with that premise is that history shows, time and again, that arrogance is often the enemy of success in war. In 1955, the US stepped into what would be a 20-year war in Vietnam. The objective was to stop the communist North from seizing the South. The might of the American military went to war with a bunch of peasant farmers; how could they possibly lose?

John Olson’s famous photo of wounded Marines being evacuated during the Battle of Hue in February 1968. John Olson/The LIFE Images Collection, via Getty Images

The US’s inability to learn from the past raises some serious questions about the competence of both politicians and military leadership. American involvement in Vietnam resulted from the Vietnamese victory for independence from France in the Indo China. While the US officially entered the war in 1955, it had long been supporting the French before they were sent packing. Once again, they prosecuted a relentless air campaign that saw 7.8 million tons of ordinance dropped in the failed campaign. A campaign which saw mass destruction in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia. This represented double the total tonnage dropped by all sides during World War II. Yet still they lost the war.

I’ve spoken about this before: You can’t fight an enemy without understanding their culture. Brute force is no match for the cohesive nature of cultural history that binds a population. Gunboat diplomacy and bombs can destroy property, but destroying a culture or an ideology is a whole different challenge. An empty can of Coke was trash to an American soldier. To the Viet Cong, filled with nails and a small amount of explosive, it was a dirt-cheap IED. The assumption the US makes every time is that the enemy is inferior, when in reality, they are often smarter and forced to be more adaptable than their attackers.

71 years on, nothing has changed despite the US having lost two more wars since facing the same asymmetric insurgency strategy. You have to ask yourself at this point who the real paper tiger is. The military knew, and I don’t doubt, they informed Trump, that this war of choice was a mistake, but malignant narcissism won the day, and here we are. Trump is now in a quagmire he can’t extricate himself from, and there’s nobody coming to clean up his mess.

To date, he’s spent over $40 billion in US taxpayer money, making the US affordability crisis even bigger and pushing the global economy to the brink of collapse. Yes, they decapitated the regime and destroyed their ability to mount a conventional response. But that was never their intent. There has been no regime change, and even if the US deployed ground troops, the chances of emerging victorious are slim.

The terrain is too challenging, and the country is as big as Western Europe and very mountainous. This is NOT going to be won on the battlefield, as Trump is finding out to his horror. Indeed, there are now reports of food being rationed to troops in the task force. We know this is an unmitigated geopolitical disaster, yet Trump still has those who should know better saying he’s playing 4D chess, when in reality he could barely manage a game of Tiddlywinks.

This parsing of his insanity is becoming tiresome. It seems to me that the mainstream US media simply does not have either the integrity or the moral decency to call out the madness. It’s like they are the only people in the world who can’t see what is obvious to everyone else, when clearly they can, but they dare not speak up. Mad King Don is mentally ill due to a singular obsession with greed and self-enrichment at the expense of all else.

This war of choice in Iran for Trump is about nothing but ‘taking Iran’s oil,’ just as he has stolen oil from Venezuela. I don’t even think he really cares about the enriched uranium at the moment because he knows it’s going to be expensive and dangerous to recover under fire. In his tiny mind, he can simply monitor it from satellite surveillance and bomb any attempt to recover it. It speaks to his disconnection from reality as he vainly attempts to sell his fairy tales of victory and success to benefit the markets, while his rich buddies manipulate them daily.

There has been no change in the regime, and it’s nonsense to suggest there is, just as in Venezuela, Trump will have no problem doing a behind-the-scenes deal with regime members willing to share the oil. Just as the US did in 1953 with the Shah they installed, Trump is simply seeking compliant leadership prepared to relinquish a share of oil revenue in return for sanction relief and unfreezing assets.

He has no problem throwing the Iranian people under the bus, as it appears he’s now prepared to throw Netanyahu under the same bus for a win to establish a revenue stream that no doubt ensures he receives a personal cut. Trump literally had a social media sugar rush overnight on Friday, posting a stream of self-congratulatory messages, like some child who has just been told he can have an ice cream. This was not good news for Netanyahu as he declared that Israel is now prohibited from bombing Lebanon.

For Netanyahu, this represents a disaster, and I absolutely do not rule out his doing as he has done before and throwing a spanner in the works to relight the Iranian fire. This cessation of hostilities will limit Israeli ambitions to expand their territorial control in the region. From an Iranian perspective, they are playing Trump like a fiddle, while at the same time removing the Israeli threat to Hezbollah. In essence, this is Trump complying with the Iranian demands that the attacks on Lebanon are included in the ceasefire. Just as they have now closed the Strait of Hormuz until he drops the blockade. They can play this game all year as the global economy bleeds out.

This has not escaped the attention of the Israeli public, who are now accusing Trump of surrendering to Iran. The problem Bibi has is that he invited a tiger to dinner, not expecting to end up on the menu himself. It’s beyond fascinating to watch this situation unfold. Trump was running around like an excited child screaming, ‘I won, I won,’ when in reality he had won nothing. Despite what he might think, Iran remains holding the cards. Which part of they can outlast the global economy are these idiots struggling with?

Meanwhile, the Iranian people are left thinking, ‘What about us?’ to which the clear answer is ‘What about you?’ In Trump’s mind, he’s already moved on, and it’s time to choose the next extortion target. This inability to read the room is forcing the Iranian people to be left thinking they were played. Which, by the way, they were. Yes, they hate the regime, but now many hate Trump even more.

He’s now in a position where he’s prepared to throw caution to the wind and dance with the devil to get a slice of Iranian oil revenue and exit stage left. The question that remains is the cost Iran can extract. They know that he’s in a corner that gets narrower by the day. He is in desperate need of an off-ramp, and I’m beyond sure that China are providing negotiating advice to Iran. I’m pretty sure Trump has had little sleep over the weekend and keeps waking up with cold sweats.

I have grave doubts that Israel will be able to resist scratching the itch that is Lebanon. By taking the route he’s chosen, Trump is signing Netanyahu’s political death warrant, and I doubt he’ll be able to cope with that. In these moments, desperate men do desperate things, so expect Netanyahu to make something up in order to resume his offensive in Lebanon.

US military leadership MUST be ready to say no, because we are approaching peak madness as Trump threatens more war crimes. Sadly, no Republicans have the balls to step in and invoke the 25th Amendment. Does he seriously believe that the destruction of Iranian civilian infrastructure will play well with the markets? I think not. Killing thousands of Iranian civilians because you can’t get your own way is NOT the answer. This can’t be won on the battlefield, and the Iranian leadership knows it. It’s going to cost the US billions. Suddenly, Obama’s deal looks like heaven to me.

The dangerous thing about Trump is that his puppet masters are working hard behind the scenes while the world is distracted to begin to implement their carefully crafted project to retain power. The eagle eye of Total Hypocrisy noted that in the dead of night, just 24 hours ago, the administration published the Homeland Security Task Force website

The messaging is very clear. The Sturmabteilung (Stormtroopers) are coming. This visual is not about defending the US from foreign enemies; it’s the official launch of a state paramilitary force tasked with a ‘law and order’ objective (NOT). This is NOT ICE, this is a federal paramilitary enforcement organisation.

Be in absolutely no doubt, Trump is going to put them on the streets for the midterm elections. He’s panicking big time, and being forced to resort to desperate measures because the Iran War is going to further drive up inflation and interest rates with no end in sight. Even if this war ends tomorrow (which it won’t), the economy is going to hit the buffers. US bond yields are already ticking up as foreign investors jump ship in large numbers seeking refuge elsewhere. Trump has quite literally alienated the entire world, except, of course, Russia. He’s been forced to extend the sanctions on Russian oil to try to play to the markets. Meanwhile, Putin is rubbing his hands once again. Trump is the gift that keeps on giving.

This task force ties into Executive Order 14159, dated January 20th 2025, which implements Project 2025’s aim of crushing dissent and removing constitutional due process rights for deportation purposes. But it goes much further than that. These Executive Orders are designed to provide the administration with a shadow legal framework, using a series of linked EOs that employ immigration enforcement as cover to introduce broader police powers. In this case, Executive Order 14288, signed on April 28, 2025.

I would draw your attention to:

Sec. 4. Using National Security Assets for Law and Order. (a) Within 90 days of the date of this order, the Attorney General and the Secretary of Defense, in consultation with the Secretary of Homeland Security and the heads of agencies as appropriate, shall increase the provision of excess military and national security assets in local jurisdictions to assist State and local law enforcement.
(b) Within 90 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of Defense, in coordination with the Attorney General, shall determine how military and national security assets, training, non-lethal capabilities, and personnel can most effectively be utilized to prevent crime.

And also:

Sec. 6. Use of Homeland Security Task Forces. The Attorney General and the Secretary of Homeland Security shall utilize the Homeland Security Task Forces (HSTFs) formed in accordance with Executive Order 14159 of January 20, 2025 (Protecting the American People Against Invasion) to coordinate and advance the objectives of this order.

I said it before, and I’ll say it again, ‘They are coming for the elections’. For all those saying there will be elections come what may, you are absolutely right, but how free and fair will they be with the goon squad on the streets, placing the fear of God into the population? Someone somewhere MUST insist there are international election monitors, just as has to be deployed in African banana republic elections.

It’s very simple, Trump cannot afford to lose control of the House, let alone the House and the Senate, and rest assured, he will stop at NOTHING to prevent it.

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