I think it's safe to say that with Trump, there is “Never a dull moment,” and today is no exception. Faced with having deployed the largest military armada since the Gulf War, Trump could not, in his mind, be perceived to be weak, so here we are, the US is at war with Iran without congressional approval. Of course, the claim will once again be that this is not a war, it’s a limited strike, but if it walks like a duck and it quacks, I think we can safely assume it’s a duck. ‘Major combat operations’ are the antithesis of a limited strike.
It’s always unwise to speculate on how this conflict will develop, although there will be no shortage of people doing it in search of clicks. I prefer to look to reliable sources, such as the Institute for the Study of War, which published an Iran update on February 24th. The summary of the report is shown in the image below (bear in mind this was before today’s strikes).
My real problem with this engagement is that it comes at a time when he has already set fire to the global world order, and I fear it is more about what Benjamin Netanyahu has been whispering in his ear than about a strategic move with clear goals and objectives. This is about an attempt to prove to the world that he’s the big I am. If this is so, I conclude it to be unconscionable, especially given his speech, in which he stated that it is an action likely to cost American lives.
We all know there are no winners in war. Trump has already claimed that Iran’s nuclear enrichment capability has been, in his words, ‘obliterated’, yet here we are again, a matter of months later, claiming to be obliterating the threat again. So was he lying then, or is he lying now? He tells so many lies that it's hard to believe a word he says.
For me, this is a man backed into a corner who will do anything, including sacrificing American lives, to keep the public distracted, and if that is the intention, then he truly is a monster. Netanyahu will relish the opportunity to exploit Trump’s paranoia for his own gain, because this is one narcissist exploiting the narcissism of another. Israel has long wanted to render Iran impotent, and they know that with the midterms approaching, if Trump loses the House and possibly the Senate, he will himself be no longer of use, and that will put unconditional support for Israel under serious threat. Bibi knows that the window to eradicate the threat from his neighbouring enemies is closing.
As I’ve said time and again, Iran only has to get lucky once and hit on a carrier or a warship, and the game changes. We are then into an escalation from which there will be no return. It would ultimately lead to a test as to whether European allies would sit on their hands in response. I don’t think many people understand the complexity of how this could unfold. It’s very difficult to assess the status of Iranian defence procurement with Russia and China, but one would hope that US intelligence has meaningful information on the threat posed by current known capabilities.
The problem with Trump is his mindset; he just views this as a game, it’s another opportunity to demonstrate the power he holds. He’ll never take advice that suggests what he wants to do is wrong or dangerous to the American people. It’s only a problem if it poses a direct threat to him or his interests. As reported by Barak Ravid and Marc Caputo in Axios on February 23rd :
Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine has been advising President Trump and top officials that a military campaign against Iran could carry significant risks, in particular the possibility of becoming entangled in a prolonged conflict, according to two sources with knowledge of those internal discussions.
It’s well worth reading the full piece in the Axios reporting, because it helps us understand the dynamic tension between senior advisors and Trump, who will, in reality, disregard everything he’s told and do what he wants, as has been demonstrated today.
The thing about military interventions tends to be, that they don’t stop at the initial kinetic engagement. They have downstream effects that can lead to complication after complication beyond the originally stated objective. Trump is viewing this ill-advised action that seems to have no objective but to boost his own ego, through a Western cultural lens. This is a big mistake; the Iranian leadership has a completely different mindset. They are experts in insurgent warfare and understand that a suicide vest is difficult to detect, but can inflict huge psychological damage. The same applies to IEDs and various other trademark insurgent acts.
These are hallmarks of the regime, and they have no problem using them in civilian spaces, which would likely include the US mainland. As I keep repeating, they only need to get lucky once to change the game. I spent time watching a fascinating documentary about the fall of Iraq last night, because I wanted to get a baseline understanding of the insurgent mindset. One thing was very clear: the US has NEVER, and I really do mean NEVER, had a ‘day after’ plan for any of its military interventions. They conquered Iraq, and the gross incompetence of civilian leadership led to the unnecessary deaths of hundreds of American soldiers.
The military is more than competent at what it does, but arrogance, time and again, leads to a lack of preparation for what it might face once it has dropped the bombs and fired the missiles. In Iraq, they disbanded the army and civil authorities, picked a tribe, and eventually presided over a defeat from the jaws of victory because they had no comprehension of insurgent warfare.
It’s not until you look at the conflict in the round that you see the US military become a demo service for the US Industrial Military Complex. Their sacrifice under fire becomes a shop window for military hardware, and then they move on to the next sales opportunity, sorry, war to rinse and repeat. Victory is irrelevant, and it’s a good thing, because the US has NEVER won a war on its own, not even the War of Independence, where the French lent a hand.
The fact that military leadership seemed to have no interest in winning hearts and minds in Iraq after the experience of the Vietnam War defeat defies logic to me. Never was there a better example of an insurgent war than in Vietnam, yet it seems the military playbook was never updated and remained the same as it ever was: bomb the hell out of the place and then hand a win to an insurgent enemy. In the words of the Talking Heads, ‘Same as it ever was.’ You’d think that ‘once in a lifetime,’ you’d learn from your mistakes.
Trump now believes that, in the absence of using tariffs as weapons of mass extortion, he needs to use the US military for leverage; he is in the same headspace as Putin, who created that playbook. Time and time again, Trump makes the assumption that the little guy will eventually be crushed by the bigger power. Ukraine, however, has four years of battlefield wins to refute that premise. Just because you shout the loudest does not mean anyone is listening.
It’s a fallacy to assume the big bully boys always win the fight. Kinetic engagement is evolving, a point made in spring 2025 by a small Ukrainian drone unit that participated in the large-scale manoeuvres Hedgehog-2025 in Estonia, with more than 16,000 soldiers from 12 NATO countries. As reported by Aleksander Olech in Defence24.com:
A team of roughly ten operators was able within half a day to simulate the destruction of 17 armoured vehicles and conduct around 30 additional strikes, while more than 30 drones operated on an area smaller than 10 km². In the assessment of the exercise, two battalions were declared combat-ineffective.
Of course, we have to view things in context, and this was a simulation, but it scared the pants off NATO military planners and pointed to the level of skill and adaptation by Ukrainian drone forces who are now global leaders in battle-tested drone warfare. That’s before we discuss their sea drones, which have sunk numerous Russian ships.
The important point I’m making is that it cannot be taken for granted that the US military is invincible because it’s not. Large conventional armies are vulnerable to more agile insurgent attacks using low-cost autonomous AI-driven weapons. There is no question that the US has the most powerful military on earth, though China might disagree. However, the reality is that how wars are fought has changed, and David can now kill Goliath in real life.
As always, I have tried to present the facts with some historical context so you can do further research if needed. It’s easy to look at what Trump does and try to apply some intellectual assessment to his actions. Truth is, the only objective of anything he does is simply to create an opportunity for him to fill his pockets further. There’s always an angle, and that’s when Bonnie and Clyde show up (Kushner and Witkoff) to set up the Trump revenue skimming operation. These two have absolutely no diplomatic experience; they’re just chancers, which is evident from all their farcical ‘deals’ which benefit Trump, them and nobody else.
Is this just another distraction? I’m sure it is, but it does raise the stakes, and Trump’s words are still ringing in my ears when he openly admitted that this distraction will likely cost the lives of some of ‘our brave military’, whom he has long been on record as calling ‘suckers and losers’. This is a man on a mission to create so much chaos that he’s able to redefine the American voter pool. What better way to defer elections than declaring an emergency in times of war? He’s working all the angles as indicated in a piece in the Washington Post (no paywall), by Isaac Arnsdorf on February 26th, in which he reports:
‘Pro-Trump activists who say they are in coordination with the White House are circulating a 17-page draft executive order that claims China interfered in the 2020 election as a basis to declare a national emergency that would unlock extraordinary presidential power over voting.
President Donald Trump has repeatedly previewed a plan to mandate voter ID and ban mail ballots in November’s midterm elections….’
Of course, Trump denies this is under consideration, just as in 2024, he said he’d never heard of Project 2025. It’s just one more example of a sustained attack on the electoral process aimed at undermining trust. Maybe it’s time to bring in International election monitors, as has to be done in African banana republics? For those interested, I’ll conclude by suggesting you could also read this piece in The Conversation by Shelley Inglis, Senior Visiting Scholar with the Center for the Study of Genocide and Human Rights, Rutgers University, entitled:
How to prevent elections from being stolen − lessons from around the world for the US
Shelly notes:
After decades of working internationally on democracy and peace-building, I know that efforts to undermine elections are not uncommon. Citizens of many affected countries have learned various techniques to help protect the integrity of their elections and democracy that may be helpful to Americans today.
In wrapping up, I would say: keep your eye on the ball and don’t fall for the distractions, but at the same time, use the information I provide as a basis for keeping an eye on the key threats.
As those who regularly read my work will know, I have been working in the background for months on what I’m calling The Truth Portal Project. I had expected to launch it at the beginning of February, but I pushed it back a month because my research into the Epstein Class was dominating my time.
I’m excited to say that tomorrow I’ll be outlining the March timetable for the project’s inauguration. After over six months in the making, my vision will finally come to fruition in March, providing an extended set of resources and messaging tips for the midterms. It will be a service FREE to all that’s been self-funded by me, and the revenue from my Substack paid subscribers. If you’d like to chip in to help with the running costs, simply upgrade your subscription, or, if you prefer, you can make a one-off donation. No obligation at all, though. All the details will drop tomorrow, ahead of the launch in a little over a week’s time.
The ongoing chaos is so traumatizing. I know it’s intentional. Our bodies and brains are not meant for this.
The key to defeating Trump? Mass non-cooperation | Mark Engler and Paul Engler
The following are excerpts from this article.
“The extraordinary level of grassroots solidarity and creative resistance in anti-ICE protests in Minnesota has given people a new appreciation for the power that mass non-cooperation can have in resisting the Trump administration’s drive toward authoritarianism. And it has created an awareness of why such action is clearly needed.”
Early in Trump’s second term, an array of mainstream critics expressed skepticism about the value of continued protests in the streets. They invested their faith in institutions such as Congress and the courts. But as these institutions – along with law firms, universities and the business community – have each caved in to the administration’s demands and proven themselves unwilling to catalyze an ardent defense of democracy, it has been left to the people themselves to do this essential work.
Mainstream political thinking in the US sees power as “monolithic,” resting in the hands of senators, generals, billionaires, presidents and CEOs. From that vantage point, the options for opposing a rogue administration seem desperately thin: wait for elections, file a lawsuit, hope for some unforeseen maneuver by elites. This worldview breeds despair. One prominent Democratic party consultant even advised that the best course for progressives is simply to “roll over and play dead”.
Those immersed in social movements look at the process of change in a different way than political insiders do. Instead of subscribing to the monolithic view of power, they hold a social view of power, which understands that those in positions of authority are dependent upon the cooperation and support of the governed.
Now, as then, the list of methods is best seen as an invitation to creativity, reminding organizers they have many tools in their collective toolbox – each with distinctive properties and powers. The potential of civil resistance is not just in holding large demonstrations. It is in drawing from a vast array of strikes, boycotts, noncooperation tactics and artistic protest. And it is in coming up with innovative forms of creative resistance that may never have been seen before.
The following takes the mass non-cooperation proposal a step further and would avoid the bloodshed we’ve already seen, and will see in the future with street demonstrations
The Peaceful Solution-Part 1
How much do you want to stop His Royal Heinous and the fascist takeover of the country?
Enough that you’re willing to make a small sacrifice? Like altering your spending habits for a month or two or three? That could be all it would take to get the attention of the oligarchs (also known as The Greedy Bastards).
A brief demonstration of We, the People’s, power of the purse could persuade them to quit supporting HRH and the politicians who enable him.
We quit spending, except on essentials, businesses lose money, stock market goes down, Greedy Bastards pay attention to our demands.
Economic warfare is the only thing the oligarchs, the business community will understand and act on. Call it a Surreptitious General Strike (Quiet Quitting). Go to work, do as little as possible. Stop spending money except on essentials. Quit feeding the corporate beast that supports HRH.