It's time for Europe to say no to US extortion

If Europe does not pull off the bandaid that is the US, it will not end well.

I have deliberately not commented recently on the Ukraine peace talks simply because they have been so fluid and fragmented, my comments are out of date before they are even formed. The real problem here is, the truth as ever is being contaminated by Trump’s persistent lies about the facts. However, let me give it a try to pick out the truth from the nonsense.

Following Trump’s call with Putin, what’s now very clear for all the world to see is his approach to a war that’s killing civilians each and every day, is proof that far from being a deal maker, he’s an amateur completely out of his depth. Putin is chewing him up and spitting him out. He kept Trump waiting for an hour before he took his call. Why? Because he was addressing a room full of Oligarchs joking about keeping him waiting. It truly is embarrassing, but let’s move on.

Trump proceeded to have the phone call an hour late, which lasted for almost two hours. The man who didn’t actually write ‘The Art of The Deal’, returned with a joke of a deal. He clearly said to Putin, ‘PLEASE give me something to go back with, or I’m going to look an idiot’. No change there then.

I can only assume that the phone call was spent discussing Kompromat, because nothing he came back with represents anything but a big win for his hero Putin. Before we even begin, the White House readout was at odds with the Russian version of events, which appears to be seeking, “the complete cessation of foreign military aid and the provision of intelligence information to Kyiv” before any ceasefire. To be clear, this means aid supplied by ALL allies too. Even Dick Turpin wore a mask! (some will get this, for others it will be a lost in translation moment). Matthew Savill, an analyst with the Royal United Services Institute thinktank, simply described the Kremlin position as “incompatible” with the European-led security plan. This is a calculated move by Putin to dangle enough to keep Trump interested, in the hope he will get bored and eventually abandon Ukraine. Both sides are talking up this nothing burger, which is little more than Putin trying to give nothing away, while protecting his oil refineries from Ukrainian attack.

Zelenskyy is playing this smart, because inside he must be furious. The plan allows Putin to continue attacking civilian infrastructure, while he is unable to attack a key Russian vulnerability, it’s oil refineries. There is little doubt to any outside observer, this is a terrible deal in which Russia is giving up nothing. All parties are praising Trump, because they daren’t do anything else. It really is time somebody stepped up and told it as it is, but everyone is fearful of what the petulant child in the White House will do next. The only real positive outcome was the agreement to exchange 175 prisoners. Until people stop enabling Trump to create these fantasy narratives, more innocent civilians will die. Perhaps to underline this, Zelenskyy should target Russian civilian targets to demonstrate a point? After all, that would not represent a breach of the deal agreed.

Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant now under Russian control

I think it’s outrageous Trump is suggesting the US should take ownership of all nuclear power facilities. The narrative spun by the White House was that Zelenskyy was open to the suggestion. The truth is, Zelenskyy is only open to the US taking control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant which is in now Russian held territory. Trump stated “American ownership of those plants would be the best protection for that infrastructure and support for Ukrainian energy infrastructure”. This is a non starter for Ukraine.

Trump is the quintessential Emperor with no clothes. It is emblematic of his new tenure in the White House. What remains clear is Trump couldn’t give a damn about peace. Once again, he only cares about what’s in it for HIM. This is clear from the White House readout which states the parties “agreed that a future with an improved bilateral relationship between the US and Russia has huge upside, with enormous economic deals and geopolitical stability.” As I said, this has nothing to do with the welfare of Ukraine.

The readout goes on “…the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace.”

Trump is simply in search of wealth and a Nobel Peace Prize, because he cannot bear the fact the Obama got one and he didn’t. That really is how petty the man is.

European leaders and Keir Starmer welcomed the progress made, I think more out of not wanting to offend he who hates to be laughed at. Their position seems clear, without explicitly stating so, they are indicating this must NOT be a bilateral agreement between the US and Russia, imposing a ceasefire on Ukraine. Macron stated, Ukraine must be involved in peace talks. Starmer concluded the goal of negotiations must be a “just and lasting peace for Ukraine”.

Trump seems more happy to seek a fantasy alliance with a thug and an indicted war criminal than any US ally. Russia is currently a basket case economy half the size of France, yet Trump would rather side with Putin than save the lives of innocent Ukrainians. For me, Kompromat can be the only reason for this catastrophic approach to foreign policy. What is most terrifying is, he is being enabled by those who know better.

Before we talk about the peace let’s talk about what Glenn Thrush reports in the New York Times. The DOJ, the US has withdrawn from a multinational group created to investigating those responsible for the illegal invasion of Ukraine. Namely the leaders of Russia, Belarus and North Korea. They are also reducing work done by the department’s War Crimes Accountability Team. Trump is literally deleting war crime evidence. Why would he do that?

Here’s a link to the full article. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/17/us/politics/trump-ukraine-invasion-accountability.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=g&pvid=4F05DB2C-AB3A-4B82-85BA-6593AFE1566F

In a statement Trump said he and Putin had already started “dividing up certain assets,”. This tells you exactly who Trump is and what is going on. He added “We’ll be talking about land. A lot of land is a lot different than it was before the war, as you know. We’ll be talking about land, we’ll be talking about power plants, that’s a big question,”

As I said before, it’s like you turning up to your home to find the police in attendance. Then being told to wait outside as they are in discussion with the perpetrators about how much of your stuff they can keep.

At what point does someone turn around and say NO? Russia started annexing parts of Ukraine in 2014. This was in breach of the Budapest Memorandum in which the U.S. and the UK had offered security assurances in the event of Russian aggression in return for Ukraine giving up their inherited nuclear arsenal which included 1,700 Soviet nuclear weapons. It also inherited chemical weapons infrastructure which was disassembled by 1992.

To be clear, Ukraine upheld all its obligations under the treaty. The treaty was broken by Russia when they annexed Crimea, also by the U.S. and the UK who failed to meet their treaty obligations on security assurances. The ONLY party who did nothing wrong again was Ukraine.

It’s also worthy of note that Ukraine also fulfilled 2010 commitment to remove all Highly Enriched Uranium from its territory.

Foreign Policy reported that Putin’s premise for war was to protect Russia from a manufactured neo-Nazi threat. He claimed Russia had to eliminate the dire threat of a hostile Ukraine armed by the West and guided by a fascist ideology nurtured by the United States.

In a video in June 2023, Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, (head of the mercenary group Putin had used around the world for geopolitical disruption), claimed Russia’s corrupt military leadership had deceived Putin into believing that NATO and Ukraine were preparing to attack Russia.

A month later, on July 20, CIA Director William Burns observed that Prigozhin’s video, which was widely viewed in Russia, “was the most scathing indictment of Putin’s rationale for war that I have heard from a Russian or a non-Russian.” Even if we were ignorant to who was the aggressor, the CIA poured scorn on Trump’s ludicrous claims that Ukraine was responsible for Putin’s illegal invasion.

I provide this important context in advance of the usual attempts to defend the indefensible. On the subject of NATO expansion, it is pure myth there was a promise by Western leaders not to allow new members to join. It has bern part of the disinformation campaign by the Kremlin since the start of the war. Take listen to this excellent summary from Former NATO exercise planner and foreign policy expert Chad Scott

In conclusion, Things remain fluid, but Keir Starmer continues to make progress with the ‘coalition of the willing’ and the EU is pressing on to implement their plans to support Ukraine and redefine defense procurement for EU countries. They are effectively freezing out US arms manufacturers in terms of the huge planned spend on military capacity for European military forces. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in announcing the Readiness 2030 program, “We must buy more European. Because that means strengthening the European defense technological and industrial base,” In short, both NATO and Europe are now doing strategic planning to safeguard security in the event Trump walks away from NATO.

In my personal view, it’s simply a matter of time. In any event I can see no reason to trust Trump whatsoever. His position is so closely aligned with Putin, he actually presents a threat to both NATO and Europe. The next week will I think really enable everyone to get a better idea of the direction of travel, but it seems to me Trump and Putin are already carving up Ukraine without any input from Europe or NATO.