Peace through strength is the claim, as Trump takes unilateral action to bomb Iranian targets relating to their nuclear program. His actions raise several questions, not least of which is his motivation. With Trump, you must always consider his actions in the context of his popularity or lack thereof. He's a master of the art of distraction, so it’s essential to view his actions with one eye on how threatened he feels by his declining popularity.
There is no question that Trump’s popularity is in consistent decline. You can see from the chart below that his disapproval numbers remain consistently high as the economy struggles, and 12 million people took to the streets to express their disapproval of the job he’s doing.
On paper, mass deportations might look appealing to his base and others, for that matter. However, when that leads to food rotting in the fields, factories shutting down production lines, and construction sites being deserted, things take on a whole new perspective. You cannot remove 4% of the US workforce and expect it not to have an economic impact. Trump has now created an environment in which undocumented workers are simply not turning up for work, so he has effectively deactivated millions of workers and the contributions they make to the US economy. While Americans may not approve of illegal immigration, they certainly do not approve of the cruelty being dished out by masked men in plain clothes. unprepared to show their credentials.
Everywhere Trump turns, there is no good news to be found. No trade deals, rising prices, rising debt. The only win he has is tariff revenue, which he derives from imposing taxes on voters who are already protesting on the street. Trump is a man desperate for a win, and he saw strikes on Iran as an opportunity to be the saviour of the day, so he went for it. As ever with Trump, he claimed total success without any detailed assessment, and in a subsequent post on Truth Social, suggested now, ‘It’s time for peace.’ This is somewhat of a strange statement when you have just dropped 14 bunker busting GBU-57A/B MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator) bombs, as part of the deployment of 75 precision-guided weapons, which also included 3o submarine-launched Tomahawk cruise missiles.
I think it is safe to say that no expense was spared at a time when the administration is claiming that the poor and the vulnerable are bankrupting the country with their illness, disabilities and ageing. It was a costly PR exercise for a man seeking to address a problem he himself had created by withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal during his first term in office.
As reported by Shane Harris in The Atlantic on 22nd June:
‘Whenever Donald Trump has contemplated confrontation with Iran, his decisions have been guided less by the consensus of the U.S. intelligence community than by his own calculation of risk and reward.’
It seems pretty clear to me that this was a judgment call, and given that Trump only ever makes calls that he is sure will benefit him, it’s hardly surprising he dismissed the assessment shared by Tulsi Gabbard in March that Iran did not represent an imminent threat when it came to creating a viable nuclear weapon. Regardless of how you view this, Trump is once again claiming credit for solving a problem he himself created
One thing which is very clear here is that the Israel lobby is running US Middle East policy. This year, Netanyahu has been able to achieve objectives he has sought for decades. Using the power of AIPAC and his manipulation of Trump, he has succeeded in weakening his nemesis, Iran, as US taxpayers funded his degrading of Hezbollah, Iran and Hamas(a terrorist group Netanyahu helped to provide funding for for a decade, via Qatar, to avoid a two-state solution.
While Netanyahu has now dragged Trump into what could be a broader conflict in the Middle East, Iran now poses a threat, beyond its now degraded nuclear program. It’s now a question of the level of retaliation. Israel has already seen that Iran can and has caused significant damage to towns and cities, even with the presence of the Iron Dome. Interceptor missiles, designed to counter the Iranian missile threat, are a finite resource, and it’s estimated that it is costing Israel around $200 million a day to defend its population from persistent missile threats. This has not escaped the attention of military strategists in Iran.
Take a listen to this made-for-one clip from Netanyahu. It will likely receive the award for most cringeworthy clip of the year in the 2025 Sycophancy Awards. I imagine Trump played it on a loop when he went to bed last night. Netanyahu simply can’t believe his luck.
On the upside, it appears Russia and China are currently sitting on their hands, and not coming to the aid of Iran, so this is certainly making life easier for Israel, but that is not where the real threat comes from. The big question now is whether Iranian proxies will attack US interests. On this I have mixed feelings. I feel that Iran will maintain their focus on Israel for now with the goal of weakening their missile defense. They know they can’t win an all out war with the US, but I’m fairly sure they feel confident they can hurt Israel. While I’m not dismissing an attack on US assets, they may feel it’s enough merely for the threat to be present. There is no question US bases are vulnerable to attack given their proximity to Iran, but I think regime will be happy with these bases being on constant high alert.
Another problem is that the Iranian Parliament has approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This could cripple the flow of oil and LNG and cause severe economic disruption. However, I feel Iran would find such a closure self-defeating, as it would disrupt the cheap oil supplied by Iran to China. The US is already aware of this and is asking China to put pressure on Iran to prevent it from taking such a step.
Aside from the elevated terrorist threat, the other major problem Trump now faces is rising oil prices and the distinct threat of Iran attacking oil infrastructure in the region. Since Israel’s surprise attack on Iran on June 13th, oil prices have increased by around $10 a barrel. Oil opened at $80.29 a barrel today. At the time of writing, it was at $77.59. It’s unclear at the moment what level they will settle on, but there is no doubt that higher oil prices are likely to push up inflation in the US, adding to Trump’s economic woes. I believe that Iran will take a strategic approach to retaliation rather than an emotional response.
If there is one thing that has become evident since Trump’s election in November. Benjamin Netanyahu saw it as the best opportunity he has had in decades to deal with both the ‘Palestinian problem’ and the Iranian threat. He’s a master manipulator who has played Trump like a fiddle, while having his hand in the pockets of American taxpayers to fund his military adventures. Be in no doubt, Netanyahu and the likes of Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich openly speak of their expansionist ambition under the banner of ‘Greater Israel’. Just as Christian Nationalism has put down deep roots in American right-wing politics, the Greater Israel Project has deep roots in far-right Israeli politics.
In an article by Momina Areej on December 23, 2024, from paradigmshift.com, she notes a couple of important takeaways, beginning with the Biblical context:
‘The concept of Greater Israel has a long history, deeply rooted in Jewish religious texts, particularly the Torah. Thus, God points to the land of Greater Israel in Genesis 15:18-21, as He speaks to Abraham about it: “To your descendants, I give this land, from the Wadi of Egypt to the great river, the Euphrates.” This boundary has been interpreted to refer to Greater Israel, which includes most of present-day Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and Iraq.’
She goes on to note:
By the mid-20th century, following the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948, it had gained some steam among certain factions of Zionism. These groups viewed the Six-day War as divine confirmation of their territorial claims when Israel took the West Bank, Gaza Strip, Sinai Peninsula, and Golan Heights. Greater Israel thus gave these factions a rallying cry and an ideological frame that incorporated all religious, historical, and political narratives.
There is little doubt that the far right in Israel holds some lofty territorial ambitions, and they believe that Trump will not stand in their way as they slowly move to expand, beginning with settlements in the occupied territories. They still believe that Trump is totally onboard with the forced displacement of the Palestinians. At the same time, they rightly assess that the UN and the broader global community cannot stop them from doing as they please. Western governments seem powerless to act, mainly because of the power of the Israel lobby, which has far-reaching tentacles.
Let’s be very clear, regardless of what you think of Iran, Israel attacked them, and then the US did the same. Both were I believe in violation of International law, but the claim is that the actions taken were justified under the pretence that Iran presented an imminent threat to the security of each nation’s interests in the region. It’s worthy of note that neither Israel nor the US provided any credible evidence to support their assertions. U.S. politicians can argue about justification all week, but it’s done now. The only outstanding issue is what, if any, consequences will follow. Any impeachment attempts are likely to fail a vote, rendering them purely symbolic.
I’m pretty sure that any enriched uranium was long gone before the strikes at the weekend and will be all but impossible to find. It will take some time to assess the full impact of the attacks in terms of whether the sites have been damaged enough to halt their nuclear program, so all the current chatter is nothing but speculation.
What is evident, though, is that few are now discussing Gaza or Ukraine, so in some respects, it’s mission accomplished for both Trump and Netanyahu. The press will merely circle around, waiting for the next move from or against Iran. Trump never disappoints, his national security team went to great lengths to insist that the attacks were not about regime change. Indeed, they toured the Sunday shows to press the point home, only for Trump hours later to post this;
To Trump, it's all one big production, and he has to be the lead actor. I find it very telling that a man who has abandoned a longstanding US ally in the form of Ukraine, not lifting a finger to help a country that is the victim of an illegal invasion by an indicted war criminal; indeed, he takes every opportunity to align with the aggressor while Russian forces murder innocent Ukrainians.
Then he aligns himself with another indicted war criminal in Netanyahu, whose army has killed tens of thousands of innocent women and children in Gaza. At the same time, he attacks a sovereign nation on a false premise, as reported by Trump’s own intelligence community. It seems he has a fetish for indicted war criminals.
It’s no good even trying to make sense of it, because nothing about this administration makes sense. The world has to sit around in a state of perpetual anxiety while a pair of lunatics reimagine the future of the Middle East. The American people are just passengers on a journey to a theocratic autocracy.
In the shortest ever answer YES …
When in doubt, start a war......