Decoding a fascist collapse in the modern era

The clock is ticking, the stress is showing as desperation sets in against a backdrop of a dead parrot economy not resting its eyes.

It takes time for a tariff-based con trick to wind its way to Main Street. Corporate America has learned over the years to manage margins to protect the bottom line. This has seen retailers engage in a carefully choreographed dance when passing on tariff costs to consumers. They operate a carefully oiled machine reliant on a ‘just in time’ supply chain, adjusting strategies to accommodate what is effectively a federal sales tax imposed upon them.

It’s just basic math when it comes to being forced to pay an average additional 18% tax on imported goods for sale. Retail sales strategies are all about passing the cost to consumers as quickly as demand allows. It’s not a simple matter of passing the tax increase on; it’s about retailers hitting the pricing sweet spot consumers are willing to pay. However, it may also involve looking for other ways to cut costs to maintain margins, hence they turn to layoffs, since staff costs are among their largest expenses.

We can see this playing out in the 2025 retail job losses. As we know, the administration is hiding the BLS job numbers, blaming the government shutdown. However, there is enough private data available to know that, according to retaildive.com, “[The] Retail industry remains one of ‘hardest hit’ from 2025 job cuts”. They note:

“[the] sector remains among the hardest hit this year,” having announced 88,664 job cuts so far. This marks a 145% increase from the 36,136 announced through October last year.

You have to be aware that, like other sectors, retail is beginning to explore the alleged cost-saving benefits of adopting AI, which can obscure the picture. Add to that, we are now in the Holiday Season, so holiday hires come into play. My point is that, BEFORE any short-term gains, this year, retailers have been shedding large numbers of jobs. If sales decline over the holidays, they will be forced to make further workforce corrections early in 2026. We’ve been living with ‘just in time’ supply chains for years now, but what AI does, is to fine-tune the supply chain models further, which inevitably leads to further job losses.

Later in the week, I’ll be writing a dedicated post on AI and its socioeconomic implications. There are so many moving parts in the global economy that it’s going to become increasingly important to understand the kitchen-table impact that AI will deliver, beyond just asking Alexa to play some music and switch the lights on. Be in no doubt whatsoever, those creating this technology are hiding the truth from you, because if the truth were known, it might just be the spark that caused you to reach for the pitchfork.

Providing relatable commentary on the complexity of geopolitics becomes more difficult as each day passes; this is a testament to the fact that, for decades, we have lived in an increasingly interconnected world since the guns fell silent at the end of World War II. As a society, we have advanced beyond comprehension, and while nothing is ever perfect, a fragile balance has prevailed, delivering a safer, more prosperous world despite some notable exceptions. The challenge is that balance is a delicate matter, easily disturbed by malign forces that emerge in every generation in search of absolute power and wealth.

Humans have never played well together when wealth and power are up for grabs, and Trump is a prime example. Time and again, we see rich men’s wars become a poor man’s fight, just as we see rich men’s gain become a poor man’s loss. In Trump’s world, to the victor go the spoils of war, and he has gone to war with the bottom 90% of Americans in an orgy of self-enrichment designed to benefit him and his wealthy friends. History will look back in disbelief that Americans voted for a narcissistic sociopathic and convicted criminal to be their president; it will fascinate political scientists for generations to come.

I have spent my whole working life as a solution provider, and just thinking about it makes me smile at times. I am reminded of an episode when the love of my life and my eldest daughter went on a ‘girls’ holiday’ to Italy and stayed in Rome for three nights at the beginning of their trip. I got a call at 2 am on night one saying they couldn’t sleep because the person in the apartments above the hotel was playing loud music. The hotel couldn’t do anything because the apartments were not part of the hotel. Any normal guy would have sympathised and put the phone down, but not me; I was trying to find a new hotel in the middle of the night and a cab to get them to a better hotel. I’ve always been the concierge dad, and it was the same in business.

I digress because the political situation in the US has even me baffled after decades of solving other people’s challenges. The problem with modern-day society is that we are constantly in search of magic-bullet solutions and instant gratification. There is no off-the-shelf solution for the deliberate dismantling of society in a premeditated power grab at the expense of the bottom 90%. I grow tired of people saying, "Don’t tell us about the problems; tell us how to solve them,” and therein lies the problem. This isn’t about putting the chain back on your daughter’s bicycle; it’s about fixing a broken society that seems unable to handle inconvenience and for whom personal sacrifice is all too often a dirty word for far too many.

The US has a broken political system. It has an economy built on a foundation of $38 trillion of debt, propped up by tech companies passing money back and forth like M&Ms. What could possibly go wrong? There’s no escape hatch, and Trump knows that, so his sole objective is to steal as much money from the American people as he can while allowing the highest bidders to rape and plunder federal land. All while removing any opportunity for those being robbed and extorted to seek any legal redress. ‘Kill them all’ is not a statement limited to a war crime committed by Pete Hegseth and those stupid enough to risk facing prosecution at the International Criminal Court. It’s a metaphoric statement that applies to anyone who opposes Trump.

This isn’t about whether the Trump regime will fall; it’s about when. But much more than that, it’s about the level of economic carnage he will leave behind. To my mind, the level of overvaluation in AI stocks is the real existential threat to everyday Americans, because a significant correction would severely devalue 401(k)s and the savings of those who have enough to survive a minor economic hit. As for the millions of Americans living paycheck to paycheck with no savings, I have real fears for them. Trump has deregulated so many consumer protections that, in a sickening twist, those paying the price for Trump’s economic incompetence will find themselves driven into the arms of predatory lenders and buy now pay later companies.

The harsh truth is that the rich win whichever way the chips fall. Trump will step in in a heartbeat to bail out companies he considers too big to fail, but worse still, companies will be able to buy their way onto the bailout list by using Trump’s crypto bribe pipeline. This isn’t about whether this will hurt every day, hard-working Americans; it's about how much they will be broken, because this has the potential to make 2008 look like a walk in the park. Just as they did then and during the pandemic, the rich will swoop in to buy assets at rock bottom and make money from your money that Trump has handed to them in tax cuts. It’s the same as it ever was. The 'reverse Robin Hood strategy’, as I prefer to call it.

(Image credit: Illustrated | Getty Images, iStock)

The biggest thing that keeps me awake at night is the twist in the movie where Democrats inherit the people’s rejection of Trump, only to deliver the same corporate-controlled government in a blue suit with just a different fairytale to sell. This is the biggest single threat that stands in the way of the transformative change needed for a better tomorrow, where empathy, integrity and respect return to politics. I fear that unless there is structural change within the Democratic Party, America will get just another turd rolled in glitter.

Trump is not so stupid that he can’t see the writing on the wall; he’s the guy who would, faced with an armed robber in a dark alley, pee himself as he emptied his pockets begging for his life. He can see what’s coming, and that’s what makes him very dangerous. Like every rat when cornered, he will do whatever it takes to escape accountability. That’s why he’s lining up for a war with Venezuela. This is not about oil; Venezuelan oil infrastructure is not fit for purpose, and the oil is heavy and more complex to refine. I believe that he is using this to grab more emergency power at home once the US is formally at war.

He’s terrified that the Supreme Court will rule against his tariffs, so he's offering Americans a tariff dividend, designed to pressure the court into ruling in his favour. He’s now claiming that tariff refunds would leave the US on the hook for an exaggerated $3 trillion. The real number is around 10% ($300 billion). Not insignificant, but far short of the estimated $450 billion his current proposal would cost to deliver the promised $2,000 tariff dividend to Americans. It’s just another in a long line of lies from the economic fantasy world Trump inhabits. As reported by Brendan Rascius, in The Independent on November 18th 2025:

As of November 18, the odds market website, Kalshi, indicates there is only a 2 percent chance that $2,000 checks will hit American mailboxes before January. This is down from a 13 percent high on November 10, the day after Trump announced the rebates.

It’s even worse on Polymarket, the crypto-currency-based prediction market. The platform currently lists the odds of tariff stimulus checks being sent out by January at just 1 percent — marking a steep decline from 50 percent in mid-November.

His entire policy agenda is built on a lie, and he relies on his fantasy narrative to perpetuate it. As each day passes, he gets weaker and becomes more and more toxic to Republicans seeking re-election in the midterms. His polling numbers are so far underwater that he needs a hyperbaric chamber. If voter sentiment stays where it is now, the midterms will be a bloodbath for Republicans in the House. However, the suggestion is that they will hold onto the Senate. I believe it may prove much closer than current estimates predict. Below, I've included a reference showing how the balance in the Senate has shifted historically in midterms.

The real question is whether Trump will lose control before the midterms, and on that, the jury is still out. However, we will get a better idea of current voter sentiment in the special election in Tennessee District 7 tomorrow (December 2nd 2025). If Aftyn Behn were to flip the seat, the ketchup would really hit the walls in the White House dining room.

There are no wins on the horizon for Trump right now; he faces far more threats than opportunities to make progress. A real indication of how bad it is will be whether he launches a military strike against Venezuela. If he does do that, then I think we will be witnessing the death throes of the regime, and we should not rule out the need for the military to be awake to the possibility that he, along with others, may seek to flee the country to avoid accountability for their actions and corruption in office.

You may scoff at the thought, but I rule nothing out these days.

Thanks for taking the time to read my thoughts and observations. THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A TIME WHEN SUPPORTING INDEPENDENT REPORTING HAS BEEN SO IMPORTANT. I deliver a post to my community most days. If you appreciate my work here, please consider becoming a paid subscriber to help offset some of the ever-increasing costs of research and analysis. It really does make a big difference - Martin