Beyond the game of economic Russian Roulette

Trump has placed a bullet in the chamber and spun the economic barrel again, the burning question is what happens when he pulls the trigger?

One would be foolhardy to speculate on where this Trump economic Demolition Derby will take us in the week ahead, let alone the next month. He’s opted for the knee-jerk solution of blockading the Strait of Hormuz. He’s done this once again without thinking through the potential consequences. I’m sure in his tiny little mind, this is a solution to him. The reality I confidently project will prove much more challenging.

He’s all in on becoming part of the problem rather than the solution when it comes to halting the flow of oil and other vital commodities through the Strait of Hormuz. His previous comedic assertion that as soon as this is over, gas prices will be even lower than before his assault on the global economy is frankly absurd. Inflation will continue to spike, forcing up interest rates at a time when the US is seeking to refinance over $10 trillion in a market where US debt has become radioactive.

There really is no way to sugar this pill. Elevated oil prices are locked in for 2026, which is likely to require the US Treasury to issue ever-increasing amounts of US debt. In January 2026 alone, they repurchased billions in older, less-liquid debt securities. This amounted to $2.8 billion. They did the same in 2025, when they repurchased $10 billion. The government will tell you there’s nothing to see here; buybacks are a routine process designed to manage the treasury markets more efficiently.

As the deficit continues to grow, new, shorter-term, or lower-interest debt is created. It’s a perpetual game of plate spinning, or as I prefer to describe it, shuffling the deck chairs on the Good Ship MAGA. Captain Pugwash Trump now finds himself at the helm, taking on water in the form of $1 trillion a year just to service the ever-expanding US debt burden. It should also be noted that the debt is set to hit $40 trillion before the midterm elections.

Spending like a drunken sailor on mass deportation, and his domestic militia vanity project just adds to his problems. Now he’s seeking to add a further half-trillion dollars to the Defence budget. In my mind, this ship will soon be forced to launch the lifeboats. Be mindful, however, there will only be room on those lifeboats for him and his rich buddies; for everyone else, it will be sink or swim.

Beyond the sinking ship, there’s a harsh reality to face. There’s no obligation to take my words on board, but I caution against ignoring them. For the purpose of clarity, I want to state unambiguously that I believe the only way that America can be delivered from this tyranny is by the American people. Time to deploy some gardening analogies, methinks, but more of that in a moment. I now view the US electorate from a different perspective than many who reside in the political bubble.

The electorate is, in my mind, split into six constituent parts:

• The MAGA Base (hard right)

• Centre-right Republicans (moderate Republicans)

• Independents and non-voters (pragmatists)

• Establishment Democrats (right of centre)

• People First Democrats (centre left)

• Progressive Democrats (hard left)

Before people start screaming progressive Democrats are NOT far left, bear with me because you will see that I have introduced ‘People First Democrats’ as a group. We’ll take the groupings one by one so you understand where I stand, because this will define my approach to political commentary moving forward.

Let’s step out into the garden.

The MAGA Base

These voters are irrelevant to me and not worth anyone's time of day; they aren’t even worth throwing on the compost heap because they are infected and will only serve to poison the political ecosystem. I’ll be generous and hand them a 20% share of the vote. These are cult members who have no political allegiance; they are simply loyal to the cult of personality. If Trump drops dead or is removed from office, they will return to the shadows of hate, bigotry, misogyny and homophobia. This is a political group facing collapse, as was witnessed in Hungary yesterday.

Centre-right Republicans

This demographic remains in play. I view them as plants that have survived abuse, but are not beyond redemption. They just need some encouragement, a little manure and some TLC. However, among them are MAGA elements who see a hard-right government as a way to build on their established wealth. These are the suckers who use other plants to survive by stealing water from their roots. The political opportunists who now see Trump as a threat to their social advancement. These will be the people lending Democrats their protest vote, accepting that Republicans need to regroup and return to fight another season.

Independents and non-voters

In gardening terms, these voters represent the fertile ground that will define the future of American politics. I cannot stress enough how important this demographic is for both the midterms and for 2028. If a new model for politics in America is to emerge, it will emerge from this group, which already represents a larger coalition than either of the two main parties.

A significant segment HATES politicians and has purposely disengaged. Who can blame them? They are the raised beds in which to grow fruit and vegetables, because they are the source of future political sustenance. With careful attention, they will bear an abundance of fruit and bring joy as they show appreciation for the attention they receive.

Establishment Democrats

These are the weeds and pests every gardener faces every year as they seek to prosper at the expense of a good crop or a beautiful lawn. They are the ones that eat your lettuce leaves and your cabbage. The ones that peck at your fruit and strawberries. As with all pests, they pose a variety of threats to the productivity of the garden and determine the amount of food you will harvest.

They range from slugs to disease and nuisance wildlife that we often learn to tolerate because the damage they cause is not disproportionate to the benefit they might bring.

People First Democrats

The Democrats are blessed with some outstanding political talent. In the gardening world, I’d describe them as companion plants. They are the ones with the ideas for protecting and promoting the growth of democracy. They are the unsung heroes who protect tomatoes from pests and lettuce from slugs; they are the ones quietly suppressing weeds in the background as the star plants enjoy the limelight.

This group comprises the intersection between the Democratic base and those in the independent coalition who believe in ‘people first politics’. They alone can break the unholy alliance of special interests to provide government for the people, by the people. A garden can only ever be at its best when the pollinators play their critical role of breathing life into it.

Will there be pests and suckers to overcome? Absolutely, there will, but nature never made it easy to benefit from the fruit of your labours.

Progressive Democrats

This group is like looking at a pot of mint or Russian vine and making the mistake of planting it among the ‘people first’plants. What you’ve unwittingly planted is an invasive plant that, before you know where you are, has somothered everything around it, then it’s time to call in experts to remove it. It’s not in itself dangerous if grown in a pot and controlled, but its reputation precedes it, and once out of hand, it suffocates everything.

Don’t misunderstand, I love me some mint sauce on my potatoes with a knob of butter, but not at the expense of it invading my whole garden.

In this moment, we are at the start of a summer journey. Despite the initial desolate appearance of our patch of land, neglected by uncaring hands, hope springs from the birdsong carried on the early-summer breeze, a sign that something beautiful lies within our reach if we’re prepared to invest the time and effort to cultivate it.

What’s terrifying to me is why the current Democratic leadership is sitting on their hands, emitting a deafening silence, all while drowning their base in begging emails to fund more of the same old same old. They have bet the house on offering no policy agenda or vision because they believe they don’t have to. Political beige at its best. They’re currently sitting in the Special Interest Lounge, sipping AIPAC cocktails while enjoying dinner on corporate doners, all the while punching their first class tickets on the gravy train express.

Unfortunately, they make up the majority of Democratic lawmakers and are just sitting around waiting for Trump to set fire to himself and the Republican Party, so they can step back in and resume business as usual. There’s absolutely no indication whatsoever that they have any plans for the transformative change that America is hungry for. I’m really sorry to be an old cynic, but there is no evidence that change is inbound in the Democratic Party.

I’m pretty sure that in the week ahead, we are going to at least get a steer on the direction of travel in terms of the war. Trump can claim victory all day long and declare war on the Vatican, but it doesn’t mean a thing. This whole situation hangs in the balance based on how Iran responds to the blockade. If it’s his intention to starve them out, good luck with that; the Iranian leadership will be more than happy to welcome the media to film starving women and children for global broadcast.

I have no idea in what world Trump lives when he claims that regime change has occurred; those left behind after the assassination of their leaders have suffered family losses themselves, as the Israelis, in particular, have been hunting them down. These are not moderate; they are hard-line. As a result, in the global economic crosshairs.

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